Our little girl was over the moon to receive her first bike. We’d decided to use The Bike Club, because we were supporting a ‘reuse’ economy, where the company sends out reconditioned bikes. Then, when you need an upgrade – pretty much a given due to the normal process of children needing bigger everything – you send back your bike, and get one of the correct size.
We paid our monthly fee happily for more than a year, and our daughter loved the bike. Not ‘girly’. A lovely design, and fully suitable for her needs.
Then – after Christmas – we saw that she needed a new set of wheels. She’d outgrown her bike, and we decided to take up on the stated offer of a replacement (bigger) bike. As advertised, and as confirmed via an email from one of the customer service representatives.
Except we didn’t get the bike. With no explanation, we were told that no bikes were available – contradicting earlier assurances. Lengthy periods went without any contact, despite our repeated requests for information. Our daughter’s birthday came and went – with no bike forthcoming.
Eventually, when we were utterly frustrated with the company, we asked whether it would be cheaper for us to cancel the contract and pay the £30 bike return fee, or wait until a total of 18 months had elapsed, in which case we’d have been eligible for a replacement with shipping paid for. No response.
In the end we just cancelled the contract. My complaints on Twitter resulted in them blocking me. Likewise on Linkedin. My polite response to the Founder and a request to connect to discuss our issues, was ignored.
My advice is to steer clear. Their claims of customer service – in our experience – can’t be supported. They have chosen to do the exact opposite of good practice in terms of public relations, which is to ignore complaints, instead of engaging with a genuine grievance.
Don’t use their service. Don’t invest. And advise your friends against.
I first started to develop the Afallen website in October 2018, as we were starting to move from the concept of our Partnership, to the reality of communicating our ideas to the world.
In 2018 the options for creating elegant websites were somewhat fewer than today. The basic wordpress functionality made it difficult to produce bespoke aspects of design, so we opted to use a commercial theme.
Fast-forward to 2020, and a number of things have changed, in the world of web design, but also more widely in our understanding of issues surrounding surveillance capitalism and privacy.
The new WordPress content management system – Gutenberg – has certainly not been without its critics; but the latest iteration allows for custom design and drag’n’drop type functionality, in a way which allows us to mirror the design of our previous website, but with a much lower code-base.
Our old website; 14 months of trusty representation
Privacy, surveillance and a ‘free’ web
In the 18 months since our first website was launched, we’ve become much more aware of data-mining, and the extent to which large corporations collect (and use) data on us as individuals.
This information can be used in unscrupulous ways to micro-target individuals, in some cases with misinformation in order to try to solicit actions such as voting for a particular outcome or candidate.
By using something as innocuous-seeming as Google Analytics, organisations are helping to maintain and strengthen the ability of private organisations to influence and direct our public discourse – and even our voting intentions.
That’s why you won’t find any tracking code on our website. In truth we never changed what we were doing based on our analytics anyway, so there will be zero impact on our operations. But there will be a minuscule reduction in the amount of data that Google – and others – are able to collect, as a result of your visit here today.
This article in The Atlantic magazine describes the worrying trend of using harvested data to try to spread misinformation in the United States; it’s a trend that we also see in the UK.
Accessibility
There are two other important improvements that arise from our change of theme.
Firstly, our website is now more accessible. Whilst not being perfect, it is much easier to navigate and read, because we’ve dispensed with a bunch of code that was necessary to create and place the elements that made up our previous website.
The other advantage is that the website is now able to automatically output new blog posts to the Fediverse, via the Activitypub plugin.
In other words, each of our posts will find its way to a (potentially) global audience via Mastodon and other federated networks – which will help us to reach, and influence, people everywhere.
So – a very warm welcome to our new website. And if you want to find out more about why we do the things we do, take a look at our values, or meet us over a coffee to talk about how we can help you in implementing sustainability and well-being. Privacy included as standard.
Dechreuais ddatblygu gwefan Afallen gyntaf ym mis Hydref 2018, gan ein bod yn dechrau symud o gysyniad ein Partneriaeth, i realiti cyfleu ein syniadau i’r byd.
Yn 2018 roedd yr opsiynau ar gyfer creu gwefannau cain ychydig yn llai na heddiw. Roedd y swyddogaeth sylfaenol wordpress yn ei gwneud hi’n anodd cynhyrchu agweddau pwrpasol ar ddylunio, felly gwnaethom ddewis defnyddio thema fasnachol.
Ymlaen yn gyflym i 2020, ac mae nifer o bethau wedi newid, ym myd dylunio gwe, ond hefyd yn ehangach yn ein dealltwriaeth o faterion sy’n ymwneud â chyfalafiaeth a phreifatrwydd gwyliadwriaeth.
Yn sicr, nid yw’r system rheoli cynnwys WordPress newydd – Gutenberg – wedi bod heb ei beirniaid; ond mae’r iteriad diweddaraf yn caniatáu ar gyfer dylunio arfer a llusgo ymarferoldeb math llusgo, mewn ffordd sy’n caniatáu inni adlewyrchu dyluniad ein gwefan flaenorol, ond gyda sylfaen cod llawer is.
Ein hen wefan; 14 mis o gynrychiolaeth ymddiriedus
Preifatrwydd, gwyliadwriaeth a gwe cyfollwng
Yn y 18 mis ers lansio ein gwefan gyntaf, rydym wedi dod yn llawer mwy ymwybodol o’r materion sy’n ymwneud â chloddio data, ac i ba raddau y mae corfforaethau mawr yn casglu (ac yn defnyddio) data arnom fel unigolion.
Gellir defnyddio’r wybodaeth hon mewn ffyrdd diegwyddor i ficro-dargedu unigolion, mewn rhai achosion â chamwybodaeth er mwyn ceisio deisyfu gweithredoedd fel pleidleisio dros ganlyniad penodol neu ymgeisydd.
Trwy ddefnyddio rhywbeth mor ddiniwed â Google Analytics, mae sefydliadau’n helpu i gynnal a chryfhau gallu sefydliadau preifat i ddylanwadu a chyfeirio ein disgwrs cyhoeddus – a hyd yn oed ein bwriadau pleidleisio.
Dyna pam na ddaethoch o hyd i unrhyw god olrhain ar ein gwefan. Mewn gwirionedd, ni wnaethom erioed newid yr hyn yr oeddem yn ei wneud yn seiliedig ar ein dadansoddeg beth bynnag, felly ni fydd unrhyw effaith ar ein gweithrediadau. Ond bydd gostyngiad minwscule yn y data y mae Google – ac eraill – yn gallu ei gasglu, o ganlyniad i’ch ymweliad yma heddiw.
Mae’r erthygl hon yng nghylchgrawn The Atlantic yn disgrifio’r duedd bryderus o ddefnyddio data wedi’i gynaeafu i geisio lledaenu gwybodaeth anghywir yn yr Unol Daleithiau; mae’n duedd a welwn hefyd yn y DU.
Hygyrchedd
Mae dau welliant pwysig arall sy’n codi o’n newid thema.
Yn gyntaf, mae ein gwefan bellach yn fwy hygyrch. Er nad yw’n berffaith, mae’n llawer haws llywio a darllen, oherwydd rydym wedi dosbarthu criw o god a oedd yn angenrheidiol i greu a gosod yr elfennau a oedd yn rhan o’n gwefan flaenorol.
Y fantais arall yw bod y wefan bellach yn gallu allbwn postiadau blog newydd yn awtomatig i’r Fediverse, trwy’r ategyn Activitypub.
Hynny yw, bydd pob un o’n swyddi yn canfod ei ffordd i gynulleidfa fyd-eang (o bosibl) trwy Mastodon a rhwydweithiau ffederal eraill – a fydd yn ein helpu i gyrraedd, a dylanwadu ar bobl ym mhobman.
Felly – croeso cynnes iawn i’n gwefan newydd. Ac os ydych chi am ddarganfod mwy am pam rydyn ni’n gwneud y pethau rydyn ni’n eu gwneud, edrychwch ar ein gwerthoedd, neu gwrdd â ni dros goffi i siarad am sut gallwn ni eich helpu chi i weithredu cynaliadwyedd a lles.
My relationship with you began on the day I was born, in the mid 1970s. As with all relationships, ours has evolved as we have grown together.
I was unaware of you, even as I travelled with my family to visit other Member States during my childhood, and into my teens. We went camping in France, took a bus to Italy (what an adventure that was!), and enjoyed an exchange visit to the north of Spain with our local outdoor education centre in Merthyr.
Through my early academic career I worked with fellow EU citizens in two of the UK’s finest academic institutions – I refer of course to Lancaster and Nottingham Universities – and I took cycling holidays through Norway, Sweden and Denmark one summer, and through Portugal, Spain and France the next.
It never occurred to me then to think about visa-free travel, or visa-free work, or the right to live and love in different countries. Why would it? I was merely exercising a right I had held my whole life. In the words of Joni Mitchell, “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”.
I left academia to enter the world of renewable energy – starting with a job in the south of Spain, and continuing with work in Machynlleth, Bristol, Newcastle, and Copenhagen. In each of these jobs I worked on or with European projects – in Machynlleth I was a partner in four projects simultaneously – and in Denmark I had the privilege of working for a European Agency, the European Environment Agency.
I learnt hugely from my colleagues from the sisterhood of European countries. Yes, from colleagues within the UK, but also from every country in the European Union and beyond.
In 2012 I left Denmark to return to Wales, where I still live today. Wales – you will know this – was a huge recipient of structural funds from the European Union. I suspect that we will come to regret placing our trust in the campaign to leave the European Union. Replete with impossible promises, sweet poison and lies, we will now turn to Westminster, in its wisdom, to ensure that our farmers are able to maintain their custodianship of land and language; that our environment maintains its safeguards so we may fulfill our obligations to the ecology on which we depend. Although Wales maintains a measure of agency due to our Senedd, I fear that the promises of ‘not a penny lost’ will prove to be as empty as the plans for the manner of our exit on the morning after – that terrible morning – the referendum.
I will regret the barriers that will – almost inevitably – be erected to trade in agriculture and fisheries, which will impact so heavily on our small, family-owned farms and fishing businesses. I will also regret the impediments to travel and live within our continent, and particularly the increased challenges faced by families in living with their loved ones. It saddens me that we now require our fellow (ex-fellow) citizens to apply for certification to live in our country – at their expense, of course.
But most of all I grieve for the young people who will face financial and administrative barriers to enjoy living and working amidst the many pleasures of our wonderful continent. Of course, many will still find a way to do so. But doubtless many will be put off by the change in our relationship, and the UK will be the poorer for that.
In finishing this letter, I want you to know that I wish I had done more to demonstrate your value to my fellow citizens. In some tiny way, I am also to blame for this break-up. My promise to you is that I will do everything in my power to help bring the UK back to the family of countries that is the European Union. If that path is one based on the United Kingdom joining as a state of four constituent countries, I would be delighted. If a different path seems more likely – a path that includes these four UK countries going their separate ways – then I will do what I can to ensure that Wales plays its part as an enthusiastic and responsible member of the European Union.
Social media has energised the way in which we interact, communicate, promote and understand. As with any tool, it has the ability to be used for good, or for ill.
I don’t intend here to detail the way that social media is used to abuse, to pillory, to demean and to spread hate. Nor is this a treatise about whether it’s democratically healthy for social media to be used by political parties or corporate entities to micro-target individuals or small communities with messages which may only be loosely based on fact, or indeed a complete fiction.
Instead, I want you to take a moment to imagine participating in a social network free from hate; one which doesn’t answer to shareholders; and where paid advertising directed by surveillance capitalism is not possible.
Now I want you to take a step further; I want you to imagine that same network, where you can share a picture (same way as Instagram); share a blog post (same way as Medium); share a micro-blog (same as Twitter); share a video (such as with YouTube) – and all the content from all those different platforms is brought to you in one place.
Hang onto your hats – it’s already here!
Unbeknown to most internet users, there’s a quiet revolution taking place on the fringes of the social web which merits close examination.
Fed up with pleading to Twitter, Facebook, Google and other internet giants to take action on abuse and to act on genuine privacy concerns, the open source community has created solutions which herald the dawning of a new era of accountable social media.
And Wales could be at the vanguard of this revolution, thanks partly to some imagination and drive from a boy from Barry who made it in New York, Jaz-Michael King.
The Fediverse
Before diving into how to join the revolution, it’s worth talking about how the Federated Universe (Fediverse) operates.
Unlike the existing social media monopolies, the Fediverse has no central company controlling the flow of content, and deciding what to permit or ban.
Instead, there’s a plethora of small sites – ‘Instances’ – which operate semi-autonomously from one another, but which are linked (federated) so that content can be viewed simultaneously on all federated platforms. Authors retain ownership and control of their content, while citizens can pick and choose the content and people they wish to connect with, free from profit-driven algorithms and their associated echo chambers.
So somebody posting a photo on Pixelfed (a federated photo-sharing site, which looks and feels just like Instagram) will instantly share that image with all their followers, on whatever ‘Instance’ they’re based.
Likewise, someone posting a micro-blog on a federated account (such as Mastodon) will share that post with all their followers across all whole ‘Fediverse’.
No more hate?
Whilst it would be a stretch to say that hate has no place within the Fediverse, it’s certainly no exaggeration to say that it is a far more pleasant place than most conventional social networks.
That’s because most Instances have rules which forbid unpleasant behaviour. The decision about what constitutes acceptable behaviour is up to the administrators or the community of that individual Instance, but if unpleasant behaviour consistently appears unchallenged on a specific Instance, it’s possible that all other Instances could sever ties, effectively inoculating the rest of the Fediverse from the content that’s being posted in the ‘bad’ Instance.
Indeed this has already happened in July this year, where an Instance supporting far-right speech was de-federated by many other instances, significantly limiting its ability to interact with the rest of the Fediverse. The success and growth of the Federation as a movement has been significantly driven by the growing dissatisfaction and loss of trust that the international corporate networks cannot (or will not) manage, and that smaller, locally-driven communities are more able to effectively self-manage.
Wales leading?
So – how could Wales be leading the charge?
Enter Toot.Wales, the brainchild of émigré Jaz-Michael King. Toot.Wales is Wales’ own instance of the micro-blogging site Mastodon. Fully bilingual by default, it is also on the verge of deploying its first mobile app for Android (with ios development underway).
Toot is also the host for Wales’ own answer to Instagram, via Pix.Toot.Wales, and for a ‘lite’ blogging experience via Blogs.Toot.Wales.
I often see people on Twitter complaining about certain functionalities not being available, including the most basic need for a Welsh language interface; about tools to control or limit abuse, about access to one’s own data and the right to delete it or download it.
My response is: leave the network. The influence we have with the owners of Twitter, Facebook or any other mainstream social media platform is vanishingly small. If complaints by users have implications on profit, they are unlikely to become a corporate priority. Regulation is possible, but is cumbersome, hard to enforce and likely to date quickly.
So we must vote with our feet. We have within our own hands, literally and metaphorically, the means to turn our backs on networks which value profit over privacy, and to champion an open source ethical alternative.
I believe that Wales can demonstrate to the rest of the world that it’s possible to take a stance on this issue. Already facing a crisis in media, we should no longer submit to the whims of global corporate giants. With so much of the information we receive being more or less completely out of the control of the people of Wales, this is one area where we genuinely can, and we should, be taking back control.
Mae ein cymdeithas, technoleg, diwylliant ac economi bob amser wedi newid dros amserlenni cenhedlaeth, felly nid oes unrhyw beth yn ei hanfod yn wreiddiol nac yn graff yn fy natganiad agoriadol. Fodd bynnag, bydd y newidiadau sydd i ddod yn amlwg yn wahanol i’r rhai a brofwyd gan genedlaethau blaenorol.
Mae hynny oherwydd y bydd ein cenedlaethau presennol a chenedlaethau’r dyfodol yn profi newidiadau geoffisegol dwys, gan orfodi cymdeithas i ymateb yn gyflym, ac mewn rhai achosion i daflu rhannau hir-annwyl, annwyl a beirniadol o’n diwylliant a’n seilwaith.
Codiad yn lefel y môr erbyn 2050
Er ei bod yn amhosibl gwybod pa sychder, llifogydd neu danau gwyllt fydd yn dod â’r trallod mwyaf i drigolion Cymru erbyn 2050 – ac mae pob un o’r rhain yn faterion difrifol yn ôl eu teilyngdod eu hunain – rwy’n peryglu y bydd llifogydd arfordirol a waethygir gan godiad yn lefel y môr yn cau pob un ohonynt.
Mae’r data diweddaraf, a gyhoeddwyd ddiwedd mis Hydref, yn dangos yn graff yr hyn sy’n digwydd i gytrefi arfordirol Cymru o fewn y genhedlaeth nesaf. Ac mae goblygiadau hyn – y gorau o’n modelu byd-eang ar effeithiau newid yn yr hinsawdd – yn haeddu ystyriaeth ddifrifol o fewn Llywodraeth Cymru, o fewn ein hawdurdodau lleol ac yn wir gennym ni fel unigolion, deiliaid tai a chymunedau.
Dehonglir y data mewn ffordd sy’n ein helpu i ddeall yr effaith ar ffurf map gan Climate Central, sefydliad annibynnol sy’n adrodd ar ffeithiau newid yn yr hinsawdd. Mae’r modelu yn seiliedig ar y data mwyaf cadarn a thystiolaeth, ac er bod cafeatau anochel yn dod i’r allbynnau modelu, nhw yw’r arwydd gorau sydd gennym ar hyn o bryd ynglŷn â risg llifogydd arfordirol i Gymru.
Er bod y modelu yn hynod addasadwy yn dibynnu ar eich awydd am risg, y fersiwn rydw i wedi’i defnyddio ar gyfer yr erthygl hon yw’r senario canolog ar gyfer newid yn yr hinsawdd, sy’n cynnwys:
Codiad ‘cyfartalog’ yn lefel y môr ynghyd â llifogydd blynyddol
Toriadau cymedrol i allyriadau nwyon tŷ gwydr, yn gyson â 2 gynhesu Celsius
‘Lwc’ canolig (canlyniad canol-ystod o’r ystod o ragamcanion posib o godiad yn lefel y môr)
Mae’r model yn hynod addasadwy ar gyfer eich chwaeth.
Yn y delweddau sy’n dilyn, rhagwelir y bydd unrhyw le lliw coch “islaw lefel llifogydd flynyddol” yn 2050. Mae hynny’n golygu y rhagwelir y bydd llifogydd arfordirol yn digwydd yn flynyddol, gyda nifer o ddigwyddiadau llifogydd hefyd yn bosibl yn flynyddol.
Rydw i’n mynd i gymryd agwedd fesul lle tuag at yr effeithiau posib, gan ddechrau gyda fy nhref enedigol fy hun, Caerdydd.
Caerdydd
Erbyn 2050, bydd llawer o ardal drefol Caerdydd mewn perygl o ddigwyddiadau llifogydd arfordirol blynyddol. Er gwaethaf y gwytnwch a ddarperir gan y Morglawdd, mae dod i mewn i ddŵr arfordirol yn debygol o fod yn broblem gyda llawer o’r tir isel ar hyd glan môr ehangach Caerdydd, gan arwain o bosibl at dreiddiad eang.
Bydd yn rhaid i lawer o’n sefydliadau ystyried sut maen nhw’n rheoli’r risg hon, gan gynnwys tirnodau eiconig fel Castell Caerdydd, Coleg Cerdd a Drama Brenhinol Cymru, y Cynulliad Cenedlaethol, Gerddi Sophia, y Pentref Chwaraeon Rhyngwladol a Stadiwm y Principality.
Amlygir y Bae a darn enfawr o Orllewin Caerdydd, gan gynnwys Grangetown, Glan yr Afon a Threganna, ynghyd â chanol y ddinas, Parc Bute, a thalpiau enfawr o ddwyrain Caerdydd fel y Rhath, Adamsdown a Tremorfa yn wynebu problemau llifogydd sylweddol.
Mae seilwaith cenedlaethol arwyddocaol fel is-orsafoedd trydan mawr a seilwaith rheilffyrdd a ffyrdd mewn perygl o bosibl, felly hefyd y safleoedd cemegol a diwydiannol mawr sydd ar hyd Bae Caerdydd ac ardaloedd y dociau.
Casnewydd
Mae bryniau enwog Casnewydd, sy’n darparu golygfannau ysblennydd i’r ddinas a’r aber ac yn destun trallod i feicwyr achlysurol, yn darparu rhywfaint o wytnwch yn erbyn llifogydd arfordirol.
Mae rhannau o ganol y ddinas, gan gynnwys ysbyty Royal Gwent, yn dianc rhag yr ardaloedd risg a ragwelir, ond mae’r Swyddfa Basbort a’r Bont Drafnidiaeth, ynghyd â llawer o lan yr afon heibio Caerllion a thu hwnt i Newbridge-on-Usk yn y categori risg llifogydd arfordirol blynyddol.
Mae Lefelau Gwent ynghyd â sawl cwrs golff mewn perygl o orlifo dŵr halen yn rheolaidd, gyda’r cynefin naturiol yn ôl pob tebyg yn sylweddol fwy gwydn na’r cyfleusterau hamdden.
Er nad yw wedi’i gynnwys yn y ddelwedd uchod, mae darn mawr o dir arfordirol o Gasnewydd i Gas-gwent mewn perygl, gan gynnwys y brif reilffordd gyfan sy’n cysylltu de Cymru â Bryste a thu hwnt.
Bro Morgannwg
Mae’r Fro yn dangos mwy o wytnwch na’r arfordir ymhellach i’r dwyrain, yn rhinwedd clogwyni uchel ar hyd llawer o’r morlin. Dim ond effaith gymedrol iawn y mae Penarth yn ei wynebu yn yr harbwr, ond mae Ynys y Barri, y dociau a’r porthladdoedd a gwaith cemegol Dow i gyd mewn perygl. Mae’r parth perygl i’r Barri yn ymestyn ymlaen i Sili ac i fyny tuag at ardaloedd isaf Dinas Powys.
Mae rhannau diwydiannol mwyaf helaeth y dyffryn, gan gynnwys o amgylch yr orsaf bŵer a gwaith sment ger Aberthaw wedi’u cynnwys yn yr ardaloedd sydd mewn perygl.
Penybont-ar-Ogwr
Mae’n ymddangos bod trallod llifogydd blynyddol Bwrdeistref Sirol Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr yn canolbwyntio ar Porthcawl. Mae carafanau isel Bae Trecco mewn perygl, fel y mae ardaloedd preswyl canolog y dref.
Castell-Nedd Port Talbot
Mae’r morlin isel o Porthcawl i Abertawe yn peri problemau posibl sylweddol i seilwaith trafnidiaeth, yn ogystal ag i rai safleoedd diwydiannol a phreswyl. Ymhlith yr ardaloedd yr effeithir arnynt mae Ystâd Ddiwydiannol Kenfig, tref Port Talbot ac ardaloedd preswyl Aberavon, Rhostir Baglan, ynghyd â gwaith dur Tata.
Mae Afon Nedd yn cario’r risg ymhellach i fyny’r afon, a allai effeithio ar aneddiadau ar hyd glan yr afon yng Nghastell-nedd ei hun, bron cyn belled ag Aberdulais.
Abertawe
Mae’r effaith ar gyfer Abertawe i’w theimlo’n bennaf o amgylch rhan isaf y dref – Sandfields a’r Chwarter Morwrol – ac ar gampws newydd y Bae i’r dwyrain o’r ddinas. Gellid hefyd effeithio ar ganolfan ddosbarthu Amazon, ynghyd â chysylltiadau ffyrdd a rheilffyrdd sy’n dod i mewn.
Bae Caerfyrrdin
Mae’r ardaloedd aber o amgylch Bae Caerfyrddin yn edrych yn arbennig o agored i niwed, er mewn rhanbarthau o ddwysedd poblogaeth isel. Mae arfordir gogledd Gŵyr, ynghyd â rhannau helaeth o’r aber sy’n amrywio o Bontarddulais i lawr i Benfro a Kidwelly mewn perygl, fel y mae maes awyr Gorllewin Penfro. Mae Afon Tywi yn ffactor risg llifogydd ar gyfer rhannau o Gaerfyrddin ac yn uwch i fyny glan yr afon. Mae ymhellach i orllewin Laugharne a St Clears yn debygol o gael eu heffeithio.
Sir Pemfro
Mae’n ymddangos bod Sir Benfro wedi arbed y gwaethaf o’r risg llifogydd arfordirol, yn ôl pob tebyg oherwydd bod ganddo lai o arwynebedd tir ar uchder is na llawer o rannau eraill o Gymru. Mae’n debyg y bydd canolfannau poblog bach ond rhanbarthol arwyddocaol Penfro a Hwlffordd yn gweld rhywfaint o effaith, a bydd y maes gwersylla yn Newgale – sydd eisoes yn safle llyn dros dro yn ystod adegau o law trwm – yn cael ei daro’n galed yn ystod llanw a stormydd uchel.
Ceredigion
Tra bod rhan ddeheuol y sir yn dianc rhag y gwaethaf o risg llifogydd arfordirol, mae’n debyg y bydd y gogledd yn cael tipyn o ergyd. Gallai Aberystwyth Isaf, o’r harbwr hyd at Glanyrafon, fod yn boddi o bosibl, gan achosi problemau i’r seilwaith trafnidiaeth ac i reoleiddwyr a swyddogion yn Llywodraeth Cymru ac Adnoddau Naturiol Cymru.
Gwynedd ag Ynys Môn
Mae’n debyg bod y ddwy sir eiconig hyn yn wynebu problemau lleol gyda llifogydd arfordirol yn y degawdau i ddod.
Mae problemau Gwynedd mewn pocedi yn y de (Aberdyfi, Tywyn) a’r gorllewin (Porthmadog). Bydd materion Môn i’w teimlo gryfaf ar hyd Afon Cefni, ac mewn ardaloedd is o amgylch Y Cwm yn y Gorllewin.
Conwy
Mae’r risgiau i Conwy wedi’u canoli ar Afon Conwy, a allai ddod â llifogydd arfordirol i fyny’r afon cyn belled â Llanrwst, Llandudno, a’r ardaloedd isel i’r gorllewin o Afon Clwyd. Mae ardaloedd mawr o dir amaethyddol, ynghyd â nifer o gymunedau arfordirol yn yr ardal hon a seilwaith trafnidiaeth ac iechyd rhanbarthol arwyddocaol yn agored i niwed.
Sir Ddinbych
Mae gan Sir Ddinbych arfordir byr, ond mae’n isel, ac felly mae pob un wedi’i fodelu fel risg uchel iawn erbyn 2050.
Mae cymunedau Rhyl a Prestatyn yn wynebu caledi difrifol yn sgil effaith llifogydd arfordirol yn flynyddol yn absenoldeb unrhyw seilwaith mawr i ddarparu amddiffyniad arfordirol.
Sir y Fflint
Mae arfordir Sir y Fflint hefyd wedi’i fodelu fel un sydd â risg ddifrifol. Seilwaith ynni a diwydiannol a allai fod yn sylweddol gan gynnwys gorsafoedd pŵer, Tata Steel, ystâd ddiwydiannol Glannau a pharciau a safleoedd masnachol yn Shotton.
Our society, technology, culture and economy have always changed over generational timescales, so there’s nothing inherently original or insightful in my opening statement. However the changes to come will be manifestly different to those experienced by previous generations.
That’s because our current and future generations will experience profound geophysical changes, forcing society to react rapidly, and in some cases to discard long-loved, cherished and critical parts of our culture and infrastructure.
Sea level rise by 2050
Although it’s impossible to know which of drought, flooding or wildfires will bring most misery to Wales’ inhabitants by 2050 – and each of these are serious issues on their own merit – I hazard that coastal flooding exacerbated by sea level rise will eclipse all of them.
The latest data, published at the end of October, show graphically what happens to Wales’ coastal conurbations within the next generation. And the implications of this – the best of our global modelling on climate change impacts – deserves serious consideration within Welsh Government, within our local authorities and indeed by us as individuals, householders and communities.
The data is interpreted in a way that helps us understand the impact in a map format by Climate Central, an independent organisation reporting on the facts of climate change. The modelling is based on the most robust and evidenced data, and although the modelling outputs come with inevitable caveats, they are the best indication we currently have about coastal flood risk for Wales.
Whilst the modelling is highly customisable depending on your appetite for risk, the version I’ve used for this article is the central scenario for climate change, which incorporates:
‘Average’ sea level rise plus annual flood
Moderate cuts to GHG emissions, consistent with 2 Celsius warming
Medium ‘luck’ (mid-range result from the range of possible projections of sea-level rise)
In the images that follow, anywhere coloured red is projected to be “below annual flood level” in 2050. That means that coastal flooding is anticipated to happen annually, with multiple flooding events also possible on an annual basis.
I’m going to take a place-by-place approach to the potential impacts, starting with my own hometown, Cardiff.
Cardiff
By 2050, much of Cardiff’s urban area will be at risk of annual coastal flood events. Notwithstanding the resilience provided by the Barrage, coastal water ingress is likely to be an issue with much of the low-lying land along Cardiff’s wider seafront and the Afon Rhymni, leading potentially to widespread penetration.
Many of our institutions will have to consider how they manage this risk, including iconic landmarks such as Cardiff Castle, the Royal Welsh College of Music & Drama, the National Assembly, Sophia Gardens, the International Sports Village and the Principality Stadium.
The Bay and a huge swathe of West Cardiff, including Grangetown, Riverside and Canton, along with the city centre, Bute Park, and huge chunks of east Cardiff such as Roath, Adamsdown and Tremorfa are highlighted as facing significant flooding issues.
Nationally significant infrastructure such as major electricity substations and railway and road infrastructure is potentially at risk, as are the large chemical and industrial sites which lie along Cardiff Bay and the dock areas.
Newport
Newport’s famous hills, which provide spectacular viewpoints for the city and estuary and are a source of misery for casual cyclists, provide some resilience against coastal flooding.
Parts of the city centre, including the Royal Gwent hospital, escape the projected risk areas, but the Passport Office and Transporter Bridge, along with much of the riverside past Caerleon and beyond Newbridge-on-Usk fall into the annual coastal flood risk category.
The Gwent Levels along with several golf courses are at risk of regular inundation of salt water, with the natural habitat presumably being significantly more resilient than the leisure facilities.
Although not included in the image above, a large swathe of coastal land from Newport to Chepstow is at risk, including the whole of the mainline railway linking south Wales to Bristol and beyond.
The Vale of Glamorgan
The Vale demonstrates more resilience than the coast further east, by virtue of high cliffs along much of the coastline. Penarth faces only a very modest impact at the harbour, but Barry Island, the docks and ports and the Dow chemical plant are all at risk. The danger zone for Barry extends along to Sully and up towards the lowest lying areas of Dinas Powys.
The most heavily industrial parts of the vale, including around the power station and cement works near Aberthaw are included within the at-risk areas.
Bridgend
The misery of annual flooding for Bridgend County Borough appears to be concentrated on Porthcawl. The low-lying caravans of Trecco Bay are at risk, as are central residential areas of the town.
Neath Port Talbot
The low coastline from Porthcawl to Swansea poses significant potential problems for transport infrastructure, as well as for some industrial and residential sites. Areas impacted include the Kenfig Industrial Estate, the Port Talbot town and the residential areas of Aberavon, Baglan Moor, along with the Tata steelworks.
The Afon Nedd carries the risk further upstream, potentially impacting settlements along the riverside in Neath itself, nearl as far as Aberdulais.
Swansea
The impact for Swansea is mostly felt around the lower part of the town – Sandfields and the Maritime Quarter – and at the new Bay campus to the east of the city. The Amazon distribution centre, along with incoming road and rail links could also be impacted.
Carmarthen Bay
The estuary areas around Carmarthen Bay look particularly vulnerable, albeit in regions of low population density. The north Gower coast, along with swathes of the estuary ranging from Pontarddulais down to Pembrey and Kidwelly are at risk, as is the Pembrey West airport. The Afon Tywi is a flood risk factor for parts of Carmarthen and higher up the riverside. Further west Laugharne and St Clears are likely to be impacted.
Pembrokeshire
Pembrokeshire appears to be spared the worst of the coastal flooding risk, presumably because it has less land area at lower altitude than many other parts of Wales. The small but regionally significant populated centres of Pembroke and Haverfordwest will likely see some impact, and the campsite at Newgale – already a temporary lake-site during times of heavy rain – will be hit hard during high tides and storms.
Ceredigion
Whilst the southern part of the county escapes the worst of the coastal flood risk, the north will probably take quite a hit. Lower Aberystwyth, from the harbour up to Glanyrafon, could potentially be inundated, causing problems for transport infrastructure and for regulators and officials in Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales.
Borth is predicted to be particularly vulnerable, with the whole village – and the estuary right up to Machynlleth- predicted to flood on an annual basis. On the other side of the estuary (and into Gwynedd), Aberdyfi and Tywyn also face huge challenges.
Gwynedd and Ynys Môn
Both these iconic counties face probably localised problems with coastal flooding in the decades to come.
Gwynedd’s problems are in pockets in the south (Aberdyfi, Tywyn) and west (Porthmadog). Môn’s issues will be felt strongest along the Afon Cefni, and in lower lying areas around The Valley in the west.
Conwy
The risks for Conwy are centred on the Afon Conwy, which could bring coastal floods upstream as far as Llanrwst, Llandudno, and the low-lying areas to the west of the Afon Clwyd. Large areas of agricultural land, as well as numerous coastal communities in this area and regionally significant transport and health infrastructure are vulnerable.
Denbighshire
Denbighshire has a short coastline, but it is low-lying, and therefore all modelled as having a very high risk by 2050.
The communities of Rhyl and Prestatyn face severe hardship from the impact of coastal flooding on an annual basis in the absence of any major infrastructure to provide coastal protection.
Flintshire
Flintshire’s coast is also modelled as having severe risk. Potentially significant energy and industrial infrastructure including power stations, Tata Steel, the Deeside industrial estate and park and commercial sites at Shotton.
Congestion Charge for Cardiff – the Future Generations Approach
Singapore was first in 1975.
London’s got one. Stockholm’s got one. Durham, Milan, Gothenburg and Valletta have them.
Birmingham’s is on the way, as is one for Leeds and Paris.
Yet, in the ‘land of Future Generations’, we’re still waiting! So we’re setting out here why we think a ‘Clean Air Zone’, or a Congestion Charge, would be a good thing for Cardiff (as a starter – no reason why this shouldn’t be the default for built-up areas with high ambient pollution).
What is a Clean Air Zone (or Congestion Charge Zone)
We assume that a Clean Air Zone for Cardiff would charge polluting vehicles to enter city limits – defined as those areas which suffer regularly from high pollution levels.
We think that all non-resident private motor vehicles – except hydrogen, hybrid or fully electric vehicles – should have to pay a charge.
And we think that all the money raised from the charge should be used:
To pay the costs of the scheme
To improve ways of entering Cardiff without needing to use a private motor vehicle (such as train, metro, bus, park and ride and bicycle infrastructure and services)
To improve Active Travel infrastructure within Cardiff
We also believe that Cardiff should follow Nottingham’s example of implementing a Workplace Parking Levy, and that this levy should be directed towards the same expenditure pots.
The Well-being of Future Generations Act specifies seven Goals which should be attained by public sector organisations, working in partnership with stakeholders across civil society. We think that the scheme we envisage would support six out of the seven goals. The impact that a Congestion or Clean Air Zone charge would have on them each is detailed below.
South Wales second only to London for illegally high air pollution according to new data https://t.co/1lndILJOG5
Air pollution is directly responsible for increased morbidity and mortality in the population at large, with particularly damaging effects on the elderly and vulnerable.
It decreases lung function, causes respiratory infection, and significantly increases the risk of stroke, heart disease and lung cancer. Maternal exposure to high levels of air pollution is associated with adverse birth outcomes. Reducing the number of private motor vehicles entering the city would reduce overall levels of air pollution.
A More Equal Wales
Pollution from vehicles does not affect the people of Wales equally. People with high wealth can choose more easily where they live, and are able to leave areas which suffer from high levels of pollution. People with higher educational attainment may be able to access information which can be used to mitigate exposure levels, or identify preferred areas to live or spend time. Pollution has greater health impacts on those who are less able to avoid it, such as young children and the elderly.
A charge on private vehicles entering Cardiff would reduce air pollution, particularly for poor and vulnerable groups, supporting a More Equal Wales
A Globally Responsible Wales
Private motor vehicles which would be eligible for a Cardiff City entrance charge are also those which use fossil fuel. The use of fossil fuel is one of the main causes of climate change, so a reduction in the number of fossil-fueled private motor vehicles will reduce Wales’ contribution to Climate Change, supporting a Globally Responsible Wales.
A Prosperous Wales
Reducing our urban air pollution will reduce morbidity associated with air pollution, reducing the cost of treating such illness and enabling resources to be spent in other areas. A reduction in the use of fossil fuel will also reduce the ‘leakage’ of money which accompanies the purchase of fuel which is produced far away and transported to Wales at significant cost – paid for by Welsh householders and businesses.
A Resilient Wales
The funding which is raised from the scheme should be (partly) recycled into improved Active Travel infrastructure, and into infrastructure and services which support public transport. The use of Active Travel infrastructure in particular is far more resilient to the impacts of flooding or other Climate Change-related impacts (if a section of a cycle or walking path is flooded, it’s often possible to find an alternative route through that part, in a way that’s much more challenging for motor vehicles). Reduced air and water pollution will also contribute towards a more healthy ecosystem – part of Wales’ resilience.
A Wales of Cohesive Communities
Improved provision of Active Travel networks, funded by a Cardiff vehicular access charge, would provide an infrastructure which contributes directly to this Goal, namely “Attractive, viable, safe and well-connected communities”.
We think the science and evidence supporting the implementation of a Congestion Charge/Clean Air Zone for Cardiff are compelling, and strongly aligned with the Well-being Goals – as well as (potentially) those of a Cardiff National Park City! We would encourage the Councillors and citzens of Cardiff to push for these measures to improve the quality of life for all.
Mae gan London un. Mae gan Stockholm un. Mae gan Durham, Milan, Gothenburg a Valletta nhw.
Mae’n un Birmingham ar y ffordd, fel y mae un ar gyfer Leeds a Paris.
Ac eto, yng ngwlad ‘Cenedlaethau’r Dyfodol’, rydym yn dal i aros! Felly rydyn ni’n nodi yma pam rydyn ni’n meddwl y byddai ‘Parth Aer Glân’, neu Dâl Tagfeydd, yn beth da i Gaerdydd (fel cychwyn – dim rheswm pam na ddylai hyn fod yn ddiofyn ar gyfer ardaloedd adeiledig gyda llygredd amgylchynol uchel).
Beth yw Parth Aer Glân (neu Barth Tâl Tagfeydd)
Rydym yn cymryd yn ganiataol y byddai Parth Aer Glân yng Nghaerdydd yn codi tâl ar gerbydau llygrol i fynd i mewn i derfynau dinasoedd – a ddiffinnir fel yr ardaloedd hynny sy’n dioddef yn rheolaidd o lefelau llygredd uchel.
Credwn y dylai pob cerbyd modur preifat dibreswyl – ac eithrio cerbydau hydrogen, hybrid neu drydan llawn – orfod talu tâl.
Ac rydym o’r farn y dylid defnyddio’r holl arian a godir o’r tâl:
I dalu costau’r cynllun
I wella ffyrdd o fynd i mewn i Gaerdydd heb fod angen defnyddio cerbyd modur preifat (fel isadeiledd a gwasanaethau trên, metro, bws, parcio a theithio a beic)
Gwella seilwaith Teithio Gweithredol yng Nghaerdydd
Credwn hefyd y dylai Caerdydd ddilyn esiampl Nottingham o weithredu Ardoll Parcio yn y Gweithle, ac y dylid cyfeirio’r ardoll hon tuag at yr un potiau gwariant.
Mae Deddf Lles Cenedlaethau’r Dyfodol yn nodi saith Nod y dylid eu cyflawni gan sefydliadau’r sector cyhoeddus, gan weithio mewn partneriaeth â rhanddeiliaid ar draws cymdeithas sifil. Credwn y byddai’r cynllun yr ydym yn ei ragweld yn cefnogi chwech allan o’r saith nod. Manylir isod ar yr effaith y byddai tâl tagfeydd neu barth aer glân yn ei chael arnynt.
Cymru Iachach
Mae llygredd aer yn uniongyrchol gyfrifol am fwy o afiachusrwydd a marwolaethau yn y boblogaeth yn gyffredinol, gydag effeithiau arbennig o niweidiol ar yr henoed a’r bregus.
Mae’n lleihau swyddogaeth yr ysgyfaint, yn achosi haint anadlol, ac yn cynyddu’r risg o strôc, clefyd y galon a chanser yr ysgyfaint yn sylweddol. Mae amlygiad mamau i lefelau uchel o lygredd aer yn gysylltiedig â chanlyniadau genedigaeth niweidiol. Byddai lleihau nifer y cerbydau modur preifat sy’n dod i mewn i’r ddinas yn lleihau lefelau llygredd aer yn gyffredinol.
Cymru Mwy Cyfartal
Nid yw llygredd o gerbydau yn effeithio’n gyfartal ar bobl Cymru. Gall pobl sydd â chyfoeth uchel ddewis yn haws lle maent yn byw, a gallant adael ardaloedd sy’n dioddef o lefelau uchel o lygredd. Efallai y bydd pobl â chyrhaeddiad addysgol uwch yn gallu cyrchu gwybodaeth y gellir ei defnyddio i liniaru lefelau amlygiad, neu nodi’r ardaloedd a ffefrir i fyw neu dreulio amser. Mae llygredd yn cael mwy o effeithiau iechyd ar y rhai sy’n llai abl i’w osgoi, fel plant ifanc a’r henoed.
Byddai tâl ar gerbydau preifat sy’n dod i mewn i Gaerdydd yn lleihau llygredd aer, yn enwedig ar gyfer grwpiau tlawd a bregus, gan gefnogi Cymru Mwy Cyfartal
Cymru sy’n Gyfrifol yn fyd-eang
Cerbydau modur preifat a fyddai’n gymwys i gael tâl mynediad Dinas Caerdydd hefyd yw’r rhai sy’n defnyddio tanwydd ffosil. Y defnydd o danwydd ffosil yw un o brif achosion newid yn yr hinsawdd, felly bydd gostyngiad yn nifer y cerbydau modur preifat â thanwydd ffosil yn lleihau cyfraniad ‘Cymru’ at Newid Hinsawdd, gan gefnogi Cymru sy’n Gyfrifol yn Fyd-eang.
Cymru Ffyniannus
Bydd lleihau ein llygredd aer trefol yn lleihau morbidrwydd sy’n gysylltiedig â llygredd aer, gan leihau cost trin salwch o’r fath a galluogi gwario adnoddau mewn ardaloedd eraill. Bydd gostyngiad yn y defnydd o danwydd ffosil hefyd yn lleihau’r ‘gollyngiadau’ o arian sy’n cyd-fynd â phrynu tanwydd sy’n cael ei gynhyrchu ymhell i ffwrdd a’i gludo i Gymru am gost sylweddol – y mae deiliaid tai a busnesau Cymru yn talu amdano.
Cymru Gwydn
Dylai’r cyllid a godir o’r cynllun gael ei ailgylchu (yn rhannol) i mewn i well seilwaith Teithio Gweithredol, ac i mewn i seilwaith a gwasanaethau sy’n cefnogi trafnidiaeth gyhoeddus. Mae’r defnydd o seilwaith Teithio Gweithredol yn benodol yn llawer mwy gwydn i effeithiau llifogydd neu effeithiau eraill sy’n gysylltiedig â Newid yn yr Hinsawdd (os yw rhan o feic neu lwybr cerdded dan ddŵr, yn aml mae’n bosibl dod o hyd i lwybr arall trwy’r rhan honno, yn ffordd sy’n llawer mwy heriol i gerbydau modur). Bydd llai o lygredd aer a dŵr hefyd yn cyfrannu tuag at ecosystem fwy iach – rhan o wytnwch Cymru ’.
Cymru o Gymunedau Cydlynol
Byddai gwell darpariaeth o rwydweithiau Teithio Gweithredol, a ariennir gan dâl mynediad i gerbydau yng Nghaerdydd, yn darparu seilwaith sy’n cyfrannu’n uniongyrchol at y Nod hwn, sef “Cymunedau deniadol, hyfyw, diogel a chysylltiedig da”.
Rydyn ni’n credu bod y wyddoniaeth a’r dystiolaeth sy’n cefnogi gweithredu Tâl Tagfeydd / Parth Aer Glân ar gyfer Caerdydd yn gymhellol, ac wedi’u halinio’n gryf â’r Nodau Llesiant – yn ogystal â rhai (o bosibl) Dinas Parc Cenedlaethol Caerdydd! Byddem yn annog Cynghorwyr a phobl ifanc Caerdydd i wthio am y mesurau hyn i wella ansawdd bywyd i bawb.
It’s no secret that the STEM sectors – Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths – are male-dominated. Two exceptions overall are probably the biological sciences and medicine, but even in these sectors, many of the top posts are occupied by men.
I’ve been delighted to have been involved with the Welsh Government’s Women in STEM Board since May last year. The Board has strong representation at the Ministerial level, and is also populated by highly influential Champions of Women in STEM from across industry and education.
I believe that it’s not just industry and education that face challenges with facilitating the pathway to fulfilling STEM hobbies and jobs, but the whole of society. That’s why I took on the role of Chair of a sub-group dealing with communications for Women in STEM.
The two main outputs from the communications sub-group have been:
A twitter account to help promote and publicise WiSTEM issues in Wales
The benefits of having a more equal STEM workforce are strongly overlapping with the values of Afallen. We believe that a STEM workforce which reflected gender in Wales would support both a more equal and a more prosperous Wales.
A more balanced STEM workforce also supports three of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, namely a Quality Education (Goal 4), Gender Equality (Goal 5) and Decent Work & Economic Growth (Goal 8).
How can you get involved?
The WiSTEM movement needs support from women and men in all walks of life. Here are some practical things that will help make the STEM sector, and society more widely, more accessible to women, thereby improving prosperity and equality for us all:
Consider adding your support of Women in STEM to your social media profile. I have ‘Feminist’ in mine, which is a public reminder to myself of the behaviours and actions I expect to hold myself to
If you’re happy to act as a STEM ambassador in a local school, or happy to speak to the media (print, radio or television) about why it’s important to improve the rates of participation by girls and women in STEM subjects, please sign up to the supporter list
If you have other practical suggestions on how to accelerate equality in STEM for girls, boys, women and men, please let us know in the comments below!
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