Category: Sustainability

  • Preparing for 50 degrees in Wales

    Preparing for 50 degrees in Wales

    Picture of a tree with the benefits to urban environment in bubbles around it

    Could 50°C in the towns and cities of Wales be liveable?

    (Spoiler – yes – and with a lot of strategic thought and hard work could be far nicer than our towns and cities of today. They could be glorious 🌟🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Read on to find out how 👇)

    Summary of suggestions

    For any urban area of Wales 🥵 under high or very high extreme heat risk 🥵

    • Review double yellow line areas with a view to incorporating trees where they do not interfere with road safety (incorporating SUDS or other low-level green infrastructure if trees would cause significant street use risk)
    • Prohibit the removal of trees with Tree Preservation Orders for the purposes of facilitating or enabling new developments
    • Assess every street for the potential to integrate new trees, focusing on streets that are furthest from existing green space first
    • Remove 10% of on-street parking places on streets that are not currently suitable for urban trees, to enable street furniture and trees to be integrated
    • Local authorities be required to set ‘shade standards’
    • Build a community movement to reshape gardens to be part of the solution

    Lessons from southern Europe

    If summer 2023 has shown us anything it’s that the impacts of climate change, so long felt as theoretical issues for far-off lands, are coming closer.

    2023 is likely to be the hottest year on the planet since records began. Sadly, it’s likely to be one of the coolest years in the 21st century, because the additional energy we’re capturing in the biosphere due to greenhouse gas emissions is at a record high, and is accelerating.

    The evidence provided by geological studies enables us to put this level of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the context of the last several thousand years, which helps us consider why the ‘anthopocene‘ is a reality.

    Parts of southern Europe this year experienced temperatures as high as 47°C. We are altering our ecosystem to the extent that we are risking, at certain times of the year, temperatures at which it becomes impossible for humans to live in the absence of actively cooled structures.

    Perhaps even more fundamental to humanity is that high temperatures can dry out soil and vegetation, greatly increasing the likelihood that fires will take hold and spread, releasing huge amounts of carbon back into the atmosphere, and devastating local ecosystems on a local or regional scale.

    Once the soil ecosystems are significantly degraded, it is more difficult for ecosystems to recover, risking a downwards spiral in nature and habitat, unless active measures are taken to protect and enhance nature.

    I remember in 2010 attending a conference in Poland where a German agronomist claimed that if southern Italy received 13 fewer days of rain annually, it would become a semi-desert and would be impossible to farm.

    It seems that this was indeed a relevant warning; 13 EU member states have since declared that they are affected by desertification.

    The travails of the river Po are illustrative of more challenging times for Mediterranean countries; the river nearly ran dry in 2022, but the rainfall in May 2023 caused widespread flooding, and stagnant water after the event risked rotting the roots of 50 million fruit trees and huge swathes of land used for wheat production.

    With overall global temperatures increasing, we should use southern Europe as an example of what might come to us in the years and decades ahead. Our latitude gives us advanced warning of future impacts but it is only of use if we actually learn, and prepare ahead of time.

    What temperatures are plausible in Wales?

    In order to properly prepare ourselves, and our infrastructure, for the likely impacts of heating, we should assess the approximate range of temperatures under consideration.1

    Current models show that Wales will experience an additional 1.34°C of average heat by . However, the records tumbling on an annual basis point to something far more serious; the likelihood of extremes of weather are significantly greater than the average temperature increase would suggest. As the Met Office puts it:

    extremes of temperature are changing much faster than the average temperature.

    The same Met Office report points out that the 2022 heatwave would happen once every 528 years in the absence of human-induced climate change, and is now likely every 3.4 years.

    By 2060, under scenarios that assume reductions in carbon emissions (that do not seem that likely under current political and economic systems), the 2022 heatwave would be considered an average year, and by 2100, it would be a cool year.

    The lifespan of green, blue and grey infrastructure in Wales takes us, roughly speaking, to the period 2050-2100. Trees can take decades to reach maturity. Hard infrastructure has a design life of decades. It would therefore be prudent to start examining what can be done now to prepare for regular summer temperatures of 40-50°C, particularly in urban environments which face additional challenges in maintaining habitable temperatures.

    Green infrastructure can alleviate heating, and also plays a role in mitigating climate change. A recent Public Health Wales report highlights the impact that climate change will have on health and well-being in Wales:

    Public Health Wales NHS Trust (PHW) recognises that climate change is one of the most significant threats of the century, endangering physical health, mental health and wellbeing. It threatens all areas of life that impact our ability to achieve and maintain good health.

    Public Health Wales

    Heat, and overheating, is a constant theme in the Public Health Wales report, emphasising why this topic needs adressing with some urgency.

    Why are urban areas particularly susceptible to summer overheating?

    There are a number of factors that exacerbate heating in urban areas. These include:

    • Hard, dark surfaces absorb and the radiate heat back into urban areas
    • High population density in urban areas increases the amount of heat-generating activities per unit area. Air conditioning cools single buildings or vehicles but adds another heat load to the external environment
    • Urban areas typically have less vegetation than rural areas. Plants provide shade, and also evapotranspiration to cool the surrounding areas
    • Buildings can modify air flow, trapping or releasing warm air to surrounding areas

    The BBC has a tool to determine how likely your home and neighbourhood is to suffer from extreme heating. Counter-intuitively, even rural towns like Machynlleth could experience high urban heating in their town centres, and should also consider green infrastructure interventions where possible, although cities will experience heat outcomes that are more complex and challenging to resolve.

    Machynlleth
    Map showing Cardiff coloured mostly red, indicating susceptibility to extreme heating
    Cardiff

    Research shows that urban areas furthest from green space are those most inhabited by people of low income or from ethnic minority communities. If Wales is to deliver on its socio-economic duty (equality of outcome for all), we should prioritise the hottest urban areas for urgent action to increase green infrastructure and natural shade.

    Shade as the solution?

    The most immediate solution to overheating in buildings is air conditioning. Which certainly treats the symptom in that particular building, but exacerbates the problem of climate change (uses electricity and other raw materials in manufacture and use), and increases heating outside the property by ‘dumping’ the heat into the urban environment.

    A more holistic solution is to shade our urban areas.

    Image from an article on urban shade by Nature.com

    Urban shade is provided by buildings and trees. Buildings provide temporary respite from heat by providing shade, but they generally absorb the heat and re-emit into surrounding areas, raising overall heat levels. Trees and other green infrastructure provide shade and additional cooling through evapotranspiration. Although the built environment could certainly be improved to provide more shade and allow greater air flow, by far the biggest improvement in urban shade would be to greatly increase the urban canopy by planting more trees and providing greater protection for existing trees.

    Urban trees provide a huge range of benefits, as described in the image below. They are the focus of the solution I propose for urban heating in Wales. The reason for focusing on them now is because they take a long time to mature, with the benefits increasing as they grow; and because the co-benefits of urban trees are so compelling.

    A drawing of a streetscape with benefits of urban trees being described as: Improved student attention. Improved biodiversity Green skills generation CO2 reduction Improved air quality Reduced noise levels Improved quality of journey and place Storm water reduction Decreased crime levels Improved walkability Improved mental health and wellbeing Energy savings Regenerated soil quality Reduced heat island effect
    Image from Trees as Infrastructure

    Wales was the first country in the world to map the canopy cover of its urban trees. The data helps enable evidence-based discussions about what additional interventions should take place to improve green infrastructure and urban shading. Kudos to Natural Resources Wales for that!

    The most recent data (2019) gives a figure of 16.4% for mean urban canopy cover. So around 1/6 of Wales’ urban spaces in 2019 were provided with direct canopy cover from trees. This figure is a marginal increase from 2013 (16.3%) which was itself a slight decrease from the 17.0% figure of 2009.

    Worryingly for those who would like to see more natural shade, the prognosis is not good:

    Whilst there has been little change in canopy cover between 2013 and 2019, the number of trees over this period have decreased overall and the figures show an ageing population of urban trees which is not being replenished.

    Tree Cover in Wales’ towns and cities; update 20202

    (Water as the solution)

    Although this blog post focuses on using trees to create shade, it’s also worth pointing out that water bodies contribute to urban cooling. Which is why Cardiff Council deserves credit for their scheme to open up some of the old canal that used to run through the city.

    Artists impression of the 'Canal Quarter' in Cardiff once it's completed
    Artists impression of the ‘Canal Quarter’ in Cardiff once it’s completed

    Suggestions to prepare Wales’ urban areas for a hot future

    Protect what’s already there

    I understand from somebody within the woodland sector that trees with Tree Preservation Orders are routinely consented for destruction when planning applications come before local authorities. If true, this makes a mockery of the Tree Preservation Order purpose, and runs contrary to a number of Welsh Government priorities.

    Given the life-threatening nature of likely future heating, I propose that trees with Tree Preservation Orders in any urban area indicating extreme heat risk are not eligible for removal for the purposes of enabling new developments.

    Assess existing ‘hot spots’ for potential new trees

    Given the urgency provided by the Climate Emergency, and the trend of a reduction in the number of urban trees, an active Wales-wide programme of creating new urban trees would seem to be a no-brainer.

    Using modelling to highlight ‘extreme heat’ areas, sites should be identified to install new trees where the current risk is greatest, and where the future benefit will be maximised. Where streets are not currently suitable for siting trees, 10% of on-street parking should be removed in order to enable new trees and integrated street furniture to be embedded.

    Assess double-yellow line areas for integrating new green infrastructure

    I’ve noticed a number of areas near where I live that have double-yellow lines, and have become more or less functionless from the streetscape perspective. If that’s the case in ‘my’ part of Cardiff, it’s likely replicated to a certain extent across other urban areas.

    I understand that they are likely to be restricted for parking to enable better views around corners, but perhaps some of them might be suitable for integrating street furniture and/or trees or other green infrastructure, instead of having to remove on-street parking?

    A street in Canton, showing double yellow lines.
    A street in Canton, showing double yellow lines. Maybe acceptable for some green infrastructure near the existing on-street parking?

    Shade standards for at-risk urban areas

    Local authority areas in Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv and Arizona have set shade standards to enable urban living in hot environments.This sort of future thinking should be integrated in urban areas in Wales which are categorised as ‘at risk’ from extreme heat.

    Abu Dhabi’s Public Realm Design Manual calls for “continuous shade” for 80% of primary and 60% of secondary walkways, shaded rest areas at regular intervals and 100% shade coverage for all formal play structures in public parks. Tel Aviv’s Shade Planning Guidelines recommend continuous shade on 80% of public streets, paths and walkways, and 50% shade in school playgrounds.

    Nature.com

    Community and street-level participation

    Although some of the levers for the urban green infrastructure revolution rightly lie with local authorities, Welsh Government, Natural Resources Wales and other large organisations, the full potential of our urban areas will only be realised when we tap into an empowered and educated community.

    A signifcant contribution to the change in streetscapes towards more green infrastructure could be delivered from those domestic properties that have front gardens. It’s something I’m implementing myself – fruit trees to give partial shade in summer but allow most of the light through in winter. Wisteria, hops, jasmine, grapes and other climbers to provide some natural shading, again just during the warmer months.

    I can imagine programmes of street-level activity for domestic properties to be carried out nation-wide in urban areas targeted as at risk for urban heating.

    This grass-roots activity could be supported by water companies (for helping with water body cleaning and reducing combined sewer overflow), local authorities, health boards (improved well-being will reduce future health expenditure) and Welsh Government (supports many outcomes). I’m also a fan of land value taxation; this system could help increase revenue from areas that already benefit from excellent green infrastructure, in order to support areas at risk of extreme heating.

    Organisations or concepts such as Natural Neighbours, National Park Cities, and Transition Towns and Transition Streets, show some possibilities for engaging people, communities and organisations with the possibilities of their local built environment.

    Existing nature or conservation organisations such as Coed Cadw, RSPB, WWF Cymru, Friends of the Earth Cymru, the National Trust and a myriad of other organisations, some represented through Wales Environment Link, could perhaps play a role in helping build this movement.

    Civic and community organisations would be very valuable participants, bringing their specialist local knowledge, as well as sector-specific understanding not necessarily available to environmental organisations.

    Who’s doing urban trees well?

    • When I used to work in the woodland sector, the Red Rose Forest was widely recognised as a pathfinder in this sector. It has now been rebranded as Manchester’s City of Trees
    • Urban Forest – a community organisation in south Manchester looks interesting

    Non-heating issues

    Some of the interventions suggested also have wider benefits. For example, urban trees, in addition to providing cooling:

    • Look nice
    • Improve mental health and well-being just by being part of the townscape
    • Improve air quality by scrubbing particulates and harmful gases
    • Remove and store greenhouse gases
    • Reduce the cases of childhood asthma
    • Provide a habitat for many non-human species
    • Reduce rainwater run-off (by 2% per 5% increase in tree cover), and thereby the risk of flash (pluvial) flooding perspective

    Urban trees can be integrated with street furniture to provide huge amenity to a wide range of residents and visitors. Street furniture, particularly shaded furniture, is a key enabler for people to participate in urban life if they experience challenges in walking, are carrying shopping, engaging with young children etc.

    Street furniture image from greenblue.com

    Caveats

    The suggestions made in this blog post are provided in the luxury of not having to bear in mind any policy, legal, financial or practical implications for implementing them.

    There are likely a myriad of challenges to implementing them, not least with educating people about the reason for changes in the streetscape, keeping trees alive in urban areas, removal of parking to allow street furniture and/or trees, removal of leaves in the autumn etc.

    The suggestions are made as a way to stimulate discussion about ways in which the objective of liveable urban areas in Wales by 2100 can be provided that give the maximum climate, nature and health benefits.and community benefit.

    Could 50°C in the towns and cities of Wales be liveable?

    I believe that the answer to this is a resounding ‘yes’ – but it will take a lot of strategic vision, and a genuine approach of reinventing our urban areas as places where nature and the built environment work in harmony.

    I can see a future for Wales’ towns and cities which is far more liveable than our urban spaces today, even pricing in big challenges arising from climate change. These towns and cities will be designed to address heat and heavy rainfall using natural solutions as the default, with other built ‘hard’ structures only where nature is not able to deliver all the solution. Our towns and cities could be truly wonderful places to live and visit.

    I look forward to working with others to make the vision a reality.

    Footnotes

    1. This is, of course, an inexact exercise, complicated by the non-linearities inherent in a complex system. For example, we don’t yet know how much the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken this century, or whether it will collapse completely. If it does, it may offset some of the ‘generic’ heating impacts of climate change. The subsequent shift of heat to the south pole could massively increase ice cap melt, raising sea levels and rendering the population centres of Wales – and neighbouring cities in England uninhabitable, except, I guess, by marine creatures. ↩︎
    2. Full reference “Hodges, C. 2020. Tree Cover in Wales’ Towns and Cities: update 2020 – Updated information to help us understand canopy cover to better plan and manage our urban trees. Report No: 465, 26pp, Natural Resources Wales, Bangor (Gwynedd).” ↩︎

    Additional resources

  • Changing diet

    Changing diet

    Changing Wales’ diet

    There was an interesting thread on LinkedIn last week, discussing things like Wales’ relience on imported fruit and vegetables. Predominantly Brexit-related issues, but it did spark a few comments about what Wales could and should be producing. And it led me to consider whether public procurement in Wales should only incorporate vegetarian or vegan products 🤔

    So, after posting on LinkedIn that I was thinking about starting a petition, I did it.

    Petitions in Wales

    The petition functionality on the Senedd website is really user-friendly. I think that this system can help our elected representatives judge the mood and salience of particular topics, and it also helps citizens feel as though topics of interest are being properly considered, and could even be debated in the Senedd.

    The process was straightforward; write some text about the petition, along with any supplementary information. Then find two people who are prepared to support your position.

    After that there’s some internal checks and a translation to Welsh, and the petition is live!

    The role of public procurement in Welsh diets

    We know that around £85 million worth of food is procured by the public sector in Wales every year. This presents a brilliant opportunity for Welsh food producers. It also provides public bodies with an opportunity to influence the eating experience and the health of some of the most vulnerable in society (including people in hospital and people in schools); and to influence the strategic direction of food and agricultural policy in Wales.

    My petition asks the Senedd to consider making all public procurement of food in Wales vegetarian or vegan, and there’s a few reasons for that.

    The climate impact of meat

    The fact that meat products produce much greater amounts of greenhouse gas emissions is well known.

    Similar graphs exist for emissions by amount of protein and by weight of food.

    A 2023 WCPP report highlighted that farming in Wales consists of mostly sheep and cattle grazing, with just 6% of farms devoted to crops and horticulture. This is despite the classification of 20% of land in Wales as grades 1-3a in the Agricultural Land Classification, defined as ‘best and most versatile’, that can sustain food and non-food crops.

    Only 5% of the beef and lamb produced in Wales is eaten here; most is eaten in the rest of the UK, with significant amounts exported.

    Astonishingly, given the increasing awareness of the climate crisis, emissions from agriculture in Wales have increased since 2016.

    Indeed, if today’s level of global food emissions continue, there will be at least a 0.7°C additional heating by the end of the century. Wales must play its part in a radical reduction in food-related emissions.

    If the public sector in Wales procured only vegetarian or vegan food, it would signify a strong policy shift, and help support fruit, vegetable and dairy producers in Wales.

    Health impacts of eating meat

    High levels of red or processed meat in diets are associated with elevated risks of bowel cancer. Some meats with high levels of saturated fat can increase risks of coronary heart disease.

    Vegetarian and vegan diets deliver health outcomes that reduce risk for type 2 diabetes, obesity, hypertension and heart disease.

    Some hospitals in England have recently been discovered to have been serving meat with chemicals associated with the development of cancer.

    Eliminating meat products from the procurement chain of the public sector would improve the health choices of thousands of people in Wales, improving the long-term outcomes for individuals, and also for demand on the NHS.

    Use your democratic mandate!

    If, like me, you believe that every policy lever on health, well-being and climate change, needs to be pulled simultaneously, it’s hard to get away from the fact that Wales’ agriculture system will need to be re-tooled, away from predominantly meat production, and towards more fruit and vegetables.

    The Senedd petitions platform gives the people of Wales the opportunity to pressure politicians directly about the sorts of changes we believe need to take place.

    I’d appreciate you lending your support to this petition 🙏🙇

    Update 5 September

    One of my friends kindly brought to my attention that a similar call has been made by hundreds of academics, to the food served by UK universities. The link to the Guardian article is here.

  • Dealing with the heat, and ‘creating’ water

    Dealing with the heat, and ‘creating’ water

    This morning it rained in Cardiff. A decent soaking. ‘Big deal’ you might think, but it’s been both (unseasonably) hot and dry for about a month.

    Hot and dry enough for small plants and grasses to have dried out, and for serious watering to be needed for most gardens.

    Hot and dry enough to make sleeping more of a challenge than normal. The temperature downstairs in my terraced house in Cardiff has been around 24°C, and that’s with me making my best efforts at shading on both sides of the house.

    It’s not just me that’s attempting to deal with the heat; a walk around Treganna demonstrates that quite a few households are choosing to use portable air conditioners to deal with night-time heat. The tell-tale is the ducting that dangles out from upstairs windows.

    This is a simple and fairly instant remedy for the issue, though not without consequences. It means buying more ‘stuff’, using more electricity, generating more waste, and (presumably) an impact on noise levels in the room.

    This issue is going to become considerably greater in future, as Wales becomes drier, wetter and hotter, although not all at the same time.

    Urban areas are particularly affected by heating, because man-made surface tend to absorb more heat than natural surfaces, storing it up to create banks of heat that release gradually; fine if the next day is cool, but a big problem if the heat persists. There’s a handy postcode checker from the BBC that tells you how likely your area is to be affected by extreme heat.

    What the postcode checker or the BBC article *doesn’t* make clear is that natural solutions can also be applied at the granular level. If you’re fortunate enough to have a garden, you can do a lot to reduce the heat in the summer.

    Fruit trees and climbing plants are particularly helpful in this regard. In my experiment the other day, the shade temperature without the benefit of plants was 31°C, and in the cover of plants on the same wall was 24°C.

    This isn’t some sort of secret knowledge, but sadly it also doesn’t seem to be high up in the public discourse.

    It’s a shame, as there are multiple benefits from using plants to provide shade; generally they are attractive, they form part of a habitat network, and the flowers and fruits are beautiful (and tasty). The mere fact of having plants within line of sight improves well-being and mental health.

    How can we enable, empower and support citizens in benefiting from these amazing benefits? In reality, my modest efforts would need to be replicated tens of thousands of times around Cardiff, and hundreds of thousands around Wales.

    Creating water?

    Of course, if we’re to create this wonderful green infrastructure, we need to be able to keep it alive in these times of low rainfall.

    My approach to harvesting water is two-fold:

    1. As many waterbutts as your family will allow you to have, plumbed directly into the downpipes of gutters, and;
    2. Grey-water harvesting (this won’t suit most people)

    These two relatively straightforward changes to your domestic infrastructure are low-cost and easy to implement – though many people unfamiliar with simple DIY skills may need support (see below).

    There are multiple benefits to water harvesting. Less water ends up in the gutter, reducing the likelihood of Combined Sewer (or storm) Overflows. In principle it should reduce your water bill.

    And it reduces your need to take more water from the tap (further reducing your bill and the associated greenhouse gases and pollutants associated with the water purification and delivery system).

    It also means you can be quite profligate with water use if you have, as in my case, plenty of thirst fruit trees and grapevines, and children who love picking fruit!

    The grey-water side won’t suit most people as there is a particular bouquet associated with using the water that’s produced; however if you’re happy to get up early in the morning (or late at night) to do the watering, the smell is gone within 5-10 minutes, and you have even more water for your plants; it’s more or less inexhaustible even in drought.

    You can hear a lot more information about my approach to water harvesting and use in this podcast episode by the Consumer Council for Water, recorded in May 2023 (head to their website to find out more about other podcast episodes in the series). My sincere thanks to the super-affable Mike Keil for his interview!

    Can we make it happen?

    I’m just one person making a small difference, although the difference is large to my family. How to replicate this across Cardiff and Wales?

    I think that a pilot project, using some of our excellent charities and third sector bodies, to support, empower and encourage people to integrate these simple, practical and effective tools for long-term shading and biodiversity improvement would be a winner. I would be happy to help put a proposal together in partnership with others. Who’s with me?

  • Assessing the intangible; parallel challenges in evaluating culture and nature

    Assessing the intangible; parallel challenges in evaluating culture and nature

    Picture of the bottom of a signpost at Tafwyl, with people and stands blurred in the background

    Assessing the intangible; parallel challenges in evaluating culture and nature

    This article was first published by the Design Commission for Wales, in their 20-year anniversary publication.

    Culture has a uniquely defined place within Wales’ statute, being defined as one of the Well-being Goals within the Well-being of Future Generations Act [1]:

    A Wales of Vibrant Culture and Thriving Welsh Language: A society that promotes and protects culture, heritage and the Welsh language, and which encourages people to participate in the arts, and sports and recreation [2]

    Nature is also embedded within the same legislation, although somewhat more nuanced; I read the two goals of a Resilient Wales and a Globally Responsible Wales as having significant weight for the protection and enhancement of our natural environment. 

    Both culture and nature are interconnected with every other Future Generations Goal. Enhancing both improves the ability of Wales to achieve the ultimate goal of well-being for all our citizens. 

    So far, so positive. However, the difficulty with policy is, as usual, in the implementation. Although public sector bodies are obliged to report on their progress against sustainable development and the Well-being Objectives [3] there are doubtless numerous challenges in undertaking this assessment, not least because some things, such as the value of culture and nature, are so hard to quantify.

    The Well-being of Future Generations guidance gives a potential ‘loophole’ for those public bodies that are unable to – say – achieve significant progress in promoting culture and nature, because the requirement to take  ‘all reasonable steps’ to deliver progress is a fairly subjective approach. An entirely legitimate strategy to deliver against public sector obligations could therefore include strong progress against ‘hard’ goals or objectives such as ‘prosperity’, ‘equality’ or ‘health’, all of which can be measured to a reasonably objective standard; and less progress against more challenging goals such as culture.

    I make this point for purely illustrative purposes; I have no reason to believe that any public sector body in Wales takes a cynical approach to their obligations. However I think the illustration is useful because it highlights that the ‘measurability’ of objectives or goals is also a lever with which progress can be mandated. Galileo Galilei’s aphorism of five hundred years ago is still relevant today:

    “Measure what is measurable; make measurable what is not so”. 

    Culture is hard to define and considerably harder to measure. Building on the thoughts of others, and in particular on UNESCO definitions [5], I have created a mind map that attempts to contain cultural sectors that could – in principle – be valued to help us understand impact.

    The Cultural economy as defined by Afallen. Note that this economic sector is just one component of a ‘five economies’ model that we are developing that includes a Just economy, a Foundational economy, a Planetary Health economy and a Well-being economy. The well-being indicators [6] are highlighted in yellow; the Welsh TOMs [7] components are highlighted in purple.

    Even with the work of reputable organisations that try to support the valuation of socially valuable contributions, such as the National Social Value Framework for Wales [7], very few of the cultural components within our cultural economy mind map have a monetary value associated with them.

    This is despite the fact that, as with nature, culture provides extraordinary benefits to health and well-being that far exceed the investment needed to allow culture to flourish.

    An example particularly pertinent to Wales is the value of the Welsh language. Derided for centuries as an irrelevance or worse by some, the Welsh language is now being rightly cherished as a wonderful community and social asset in its own right. Furthermore there is now a mountain of peer-reviewed evidence demonstrating that bilingualism offers a whole host of benefits to health, educational attainment and well-being.

    A systems map demonstrating some of the benefits of the Welsh language to a range of socio-economic and well-being outcomes [8]

    If it’s true that bilingualism offers so many benefits, how can we evidence this in a way that increases the perceived value of the Welsh language to public and private sector organisations in Wales. And the bigger question; if some of these benefits also arise for other cultural aspects, how can the cultural sector as a whole improve the evidence base for outcomes that benefit every one of us? For example, how can we ‘reward’ culture and society for playing a crucial role in mitigating the loneliness and isolation that occurred during the pandemic lockdowns? How do we value the interventions that reduce the future burden of mental health on our health services and on society more generally?

    I don’t pretend to have the answers, but I do have some ideas about things that may help guide us.

    1. Carry out a project to collate the peer-reviewed evidence on the benefits of bilingualism, and to try to develop a metric for assessing the value of different interventions to support or facilitate the use of Welsh language. This could be done in partnership with established ‘social value’ organisations, or as a stand-alone 
    2. Take the latest evidence from international bodies such as the G20 [9], UNESCO [10] and the OECD [11] that carry out work to examine the accounting of cultural value, and use the best international practices in cultural accounting to supplement existing frameworks in Wales
    3. Incorporate the outcomes of the above two projects into the Future Generations guidance to support public sector bodies in understanding and appropriately valuing their contributions to culture, and therefore wider society, economy and well-being

    In a previous life, I worked at the European Environment Agency, an organisation which helped translate science into policy. I was part of a fierce internal debate about the merits of trying to assign a value to nature and ecosystem services, and at the time I was convinced that we needed to engage with the world of ‘accounting’ (in its most general sense) in order to make the case for valuing nature more highly. 

    Notwithstanding that myself and a colleague were able to demonstrate the staggeringly powerful impacts of the Montreal Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as showing the terrible price paid for the use of lead in petrol [12], I now believe that I was wrong. Attempting to value nature, and ecosystem services, feels as though it is a trap laid by an extractive system that attempts to create a framework of worth against which everything can be bought and sold.

    But the value of a tree, a woodland, a river, an ant colony; these things have intrinsic worth, and the myriad of inter-relationships between them and the rest of the ecosystem (and hence to human society) are truly impossible to calculate. We know that experiencing nature, even in the most ephemeral ways, improves physical and mental well-being [13] [14], so there must be an ‘in principle’ metric that enables us to value the reduced need for medical intervention, that would enable us to argue more effectively for increased green space. 

    My contention is that, due to an inefficient understanding or methodological approach, we will always be playing ‘catch up’ on the valuation of our natural resources. This raises the risk of ‘playing the game’ of an accounting system that systematically undervalues nature, so that decisions continue to be made that jeopardise Wales’ ability to provide well-being to its citizens.. 


    I think the same argument can be made about attempts to assess the economic value of culture. In doing so, we run the risk of reducing the argument for a strong and thriving cultural sector to a game of numbers, where winners and losers are apportioned according to their ability to navigate different accounting systems.

    And yet; decisions are made within frameworks that use accounting to apportion effort and resource. If we resile from making arguments within those institutions and frameworks, we might obtain outcomes that are not conducive to creating the conditions that allow a flourishing of both culture and nature.

    I can see the inherent contradictions in wanting to value the intangibles such as wonder, companionship, and fulfilment that arise from participation in culture or nature, but for now I can see no way out of the conundrum.

    Perhaps by travelling a little further down the road of seeking to assess and account for these things, we can develop our understanding and make new connections between groups, communities and concepts that will strengthen society’s appreciation of culture and nature.

    Nature provides every single one of our most basic human needs; food, shelter, water and air. It provides incalculable joy and wonder. Culture elevates us as thinking, caring beings of community, providing cohesion and enabling us to communicate and coordinate in mind-bogglingly sophisticated ways. In our quest to ascribe value, we must never lose sight of the intangible.

    Bibliography

    [1] ‘The Well-being of Future Generations’, GOV.WALES. https://gov.wales/well-being-of-future-generations-wales (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [2] ‘A Wales of Vibrant Culture and Thriving Welsh Language – The Future Generations Commissioner for Wales’. https://www.futuregenerations.wales/a-wales-of-vibrant-culture-and-thriving-welsh-language/ (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [3] ‘Well-being of future generations: public bodies guidance’, GOV.WALES. https://gov.wales/well-being-future-generations-public-bodies-guidance (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [4] D. C. Cone and L. W. Gerson, ‘Measuring the Measurable: A Commentary on Impact Factor’, Acad. Emerg. Med., vol. 19, no. 11, pp. 1297–1299, 2012, doi: 10.1111/acem.12003.

    [5] ‘Measuring the economic contribution of cultural industries: a review and assessment of current methodological approaches – UNESCO Digital Library’. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000218251 (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [6] ‘Wellbeing of Wales: national indicators’, GOV.WALES. https://gov.wales/wellbeing-wales-national-indicators (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [7] ‘National TOMs: Wales’, National Social Value Taskforce. https://www.nationalsocialvaluetaskforce.org/national-toms-wales (accessed May 09, 2021).

    [8] D. Clubb, ‘Systems approach to Welsh language’, Kumu, Apr. 06, 2021. https://kumu.io/davidafallen/systems-approach-to-welsh-language (accessed Apr. 16, 2022).

    [9] ‘Rome Declaration of the G20 Ministers of Culture’. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2021/210730-culture.html (accessed Apr. 16, 2022).

    [10] ‘Culture Satellite Account’, Oct. 09, 2018. http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/culture-satellite-account (accessed Apr. 16, 2022).

    [11] ‘Project on the International Measurement of Culture – OECD’. https://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/projectontheinternationalmeasurementofculture.htm (accessed Apr. 16, 2022).

    [12] ‘Late lessons II Chapter 23 – Understanding and accounting for the costs of inaction — European Environment Agency’. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2/late-lessons-chapters/late-lessons-ii-chapter-23/view (accessed Apr. 15, 2022).

    [13] M. Richardson, H.-A. Passmore, R. Lumber, R. Thomas, and A. Hunt, ‘Moments, not minutes: The nature-wellbeing relationship’, Int. J. Wellbeing, vol. 11, no. 1, Art. no. 1, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.5502/ijw.v11i1.1267.

    [14] ‘Green space, mental wellbeing and sustainable communities – Public health matters’. https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2016/11/09/green-space-mental-wellbeing-and-sustainable-communities/ (accessed Feb. 25, 2020).

  • A worthy infrastructure strategy for Wales

    A worthy infrastructure strategy for Wales

    4 minutes

    If I tell you that It’s not often I’ve found myself excited by a piece of infrastructure policy, I’m sure I’ll be in good company. 

    Hold on to your hats; the just-published Wales Infrastructure Investment Strategy (WIIS) is about to smash your concept of what infrastructure policy can mean to the environment, well-being and social justice.

    What can I mean by that? Well, take this direct quote for example:

    “Infrastructure investment programmes must embody the value of social justice and move to eliminate inequality in Wales.”

    It’s true:, this strategy explicitly sets out Welsh Government’s intention to use a strategic approach to infrastructure investment to help tackle social inequality.

    In fact, the themes of social justice, environment and place are embedded throughout the document. There is frequent reference to the foundational economy; to the ‘Town Centre First’ approach; and to green infrastructure and natural solutions. Sustainability runs through the whole thing like electrons in a wire.

    The increasing focus on improving well-being outcomes from infrastructure isn’t ‘just’ a Wales thing. If you look through some other recent infrastructure strategies, such as the New Zealand draft infrastructure strategy, the preliminary stage on Canada’s Infrastructure Assessment, and the 2021 Australia Infrastructure Plan, you’ll see that well-being is becoming less a peripheral ‘bolt-on’ and more a core component and desirable outcome of infrastructure delivery. Indeed – not that we should be evaluating strategies with this sort of metric – Australia’s Plan contains the word ‘sustainability’ no fewer than 614 times.

    The New Zealand draft infrastructure strategy clearly links infrastructure with well-being

    But the WIIS goes a bit further; there is a very tight integration between the well-being goals, the nature and climate emergencies, and infrastructure, throughout the document. It appears to explicitly set out to break down the walls between ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure, demonstrating that social and natural infrastructure are of equal importance to what might be perceived as ‘traditional’ forms of infrastructure such as roads or buildings.

    This aligns with my personal ‘philosophy’ of infrastructure that prioritises happiness, health and long-term sustainability over more straightforward but less helpful indicators such as GDP. This is not to say that economic indicators are irrelevant; but to accept that the playing field has been highly skewed towards increasing outputs that are tangential to well-being, at least once a certain amount of wealth has been achieved at a country-level. 

    In order to redress the balance – as required by our understanding of the near-unbearable pressures that our activities are causing to local and global ecosystems – we must therefore radically amend every policy, budgetary and social tool at our disposal. 

    Readers of the WIIS will probably be pleased to see frequent mentions to the transport hierarchy and to Llwybr Newydd (the Wales Transport Strategy). The circular economy is also a significant beneficiary of focus, with support earmarked for repair and reuse-type projects. 

    Other sectors receiving considerable attention are housing (particularly with regard to decarbonisation efforts), biodiversity and natural capital, and the revitalisation of town centres.

    In the foreword to the WIIS, Rebecca Evans AS says:

    “Instead of thinking first “what infrastructure should we invest in?” the question must be “what should investment in our infrastructure enable?”.

    It’s exactly the right way to structure the discussion. Wales’ infrastructure needs to enable, empower, support and safeguard. In a complex world, replete with wicked problems, we need to create a framework that provides us with the principles and guidance to deliver long-term improvements across every facet of society. 

    The Well-being of Future Generations Act is that framework; and this Infrastructure Strategy is a worthy complement to it.

    ———————————————————————————

    Some key Welsh policies referred to within WIIS:

  • Own a tiny piece of a wind turbine

    Own a tiny piece of a wind turbine

    I’ve had the privilege and pleasure of working for the renewable energy sector for more than fifteen years – much of that supporting onshore wind.

    Onshore wind is the cheapest form of electricity, and can be deployed relatively quickly. It is the perfect complement to solar, typically increasing its output during the winter months. And I think that wind turbines themselves are elegant, beautiful and symbolic of our move away from fossil fuel and towards a better, brighter future.

    In the summer of 2019 I was asked if I wanted to help support a new kind of onshore wind project. The concept, produced by Ripple Energy, is for co-operatively owned wind projects to produce electricity, and then sell it as close to market price as possible, with the value captured for members of the co-op.

    I was intrigued, and delighted to be asked to lend my support, and so I agreed to Chair the Board of a new pilot wind project cooperative.

    Fast forward to July 2020 (and me stepping down from Chair due to Covid-19 and furlough!), and after a huge amount of hard work by Simon Peltenburg, Sarah Merrick and my fellow Board members, the project is now live. Yes, you can buy your own tiny bit of a wind farm, and – as near as possible – have a direct link between the electricity you use and the electricity you generate, straight from a wind turbine.

    The turbine is based in the Rhondda in south Wales, and will directly benefit local residents through a local impact fund. It will directly benefit the members of the cooperative by reducing their electricity bills – as long as there’s a differential between the cost of building and running the wind turbine, compared to the wholesale cost of electricity. All the models of predicted electricity prices point to this being the case.

    There’s a ‘cost calculator‘ to help you find out how much a share in the coop would cost, and the potential savings you could make.

    No alt text provided for this image

    Supporting the sector

    Many people, only too aware of the impact that our everyday activities are having on climate, are keen to try to make more direct change to how we live our lives. This project, and the Ripple concept more generally, do exactly that.

    I am really excited by the prospect of tens or hundreds of these projects, growing in scale across the UK and beyond, harnessing the power of individuals and (in due course) businesses to directly put their money where the science tells us we need to.

    As usual, there are a whole bunch of caveats with this sort of ‘investment’ – available from the share document, which also features me(!) as a Board member.

    No alt text provided for this image

    You’ll need to change supplier to Octopus Energy for a while (sorry Bulb, you were great but I understand that in future there will be a range of suppliers we can switch to) – but in my case that was handled very straightforwardly.

    Please head to the website, take a look around, and if you think this is a project worth supporting, join me and hundreds of others in making it a reality.

  • A long road: 2021 targets for CO2 emissions in the EU

    A long road: 2021 targets for CO2 emissions in the EU

    The European Environment Agency (EEA), my former employer, has published the latest in the series of reports about CO2 emissions for new vans and cars.

    As shown in the graph below, there is a big mismatch between the trendline and the 2021 target which requires a very substantial drop in average emissions. Perhaps the manufacturers are banking on the continuing ‘march’ of the low-emission vehicle?

    A recent upturn in the average values reflects an increasing predilection for SUVs for EU citizens. This is a shame from the perspective of climate policy; they are generally heavier and less efficient.

    The shockwaves of continue to reverberate, with another fall in diesel registrations – 9% decrease in the last year to 36% of the total market – bringing the total decline to 19% since the peak year of 2011.

    The glimmer of hope is that the market share for hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) has increased from 1% to 2% from 2016 to 2018. Continued exponential growth may yet bring transport emissions on track.

    Real-world testing

    The wheels of regulation turn slowly. Although it was common knowledge that the manufacturers ‘gamed’ the energy efficiency tests, nothing could be done about it due to the power of the manufacturer lobby in Brussels.

    Dieselgate finally tipped the power balance in favour of the regulators, and ‘real world’ conditions will be required from 2021.

    The UK’s place

    With the UK having left the EU, and looking as though it will ‘crash out’ with no deal, it seems likely that this will be the last time that ‘our’ statistics are included as part of the EEA’s work.

    Whether this leads to a reduction in CO2 requirements in the UK is unclear. The UK Government appears paralysed between wanting to ‘act’ on CO2, and grimly understanding that there will be horrific economic consequences from leaving the EU without a deal at the end of the year. Maybe they will want to toss regulations out of the window in order to ‘cut costs’ (which in reality will just shift the burden to the population at large and reduce costs to the polluter)? Or maybe Michael Gove was telling the truth when he challenged the EU to an environmental race.

    Words are cheap. Action has meaning. This Government has so far shown a distinct preference for the former.

    Wales’ place?

    As usual, Wales has very little say in what happens to this line of regulation in future, which is a UK matter. If the UK Government decide that they want to (indirectly) reward polluters by weakening the environmental requirements for new vehicles, there is nothing that the Welsh Government can do to stop it, despite there being a direct inherent contradiction with both the Act for the Well-being of Future Generations, and the constitutional obligation to sustainability.

    So, as usual, we’ll just have to cross our fingers and suck up whatever’s decided the other end of the M4.

  • Reflections on renewables

    Reflections on renewables

    I joined RenewableUK in June 2012 and left in March 2019. This blog post provides some reflections on my time with the organisation. To hear my thoughts on a wide range of issues, head to the Cardiff Podcast where I chat about climate change, feminism, the energy sector in Wales and my new venture, Afallen.

    Today marks the end of my employment with RenewableUK, the UK’s pre-eminent not-for-profit trade body for clean energy, and the only one with a staff presence in Wales. Nearly seven years after my move from the European Environment Agency in Denmark, I’m taking my next steps in my career — this time, one that I’ve defined for myself (more on that in a future post!)

    I’m taking the opportunity to reflect on some of the changes that have taken place over those seven years, and on the challenges that lie ahead. After all, although renewables are now one of the dominant forms of electricity generation, we still have to get to grips with powering our transport and heat with renewable energy if we’re to have any hope of meeting our legal and moral obligations to a low-carbon society.

    The change

    The sector has seen astonishing changes over the last seven years — both at a UK level, and in Wales. Most interesting for me is the change in political and media attitude to renewables over that time, and the divergence in approach to renewable energy between the governments of the UK and Wales.

    ‘Renewables’ in the media is usually a proxy to talk about onshore wind, a technology supported by the vast majority of citizens of the UK (demonstrated time and again by UK Government polls), yet one described almost invariably by the media as ‘controversial’. Perhaps in the same way as brussel sprouts on the plate at Christmas being ‘controversial’, in that a tiny proportion of the population are highly exercised by it; but not in the least controversial across the population at large.

    Graph showing the change in support levels amongst the general public in the UK, from March 2012 to March 2018.

    Despite my continuing frustration with many media outlets about their representation of onshore wind, the situation in Wales has greatly improved. In 2012 the general tone of debate was hostile, with a number of journalists — yes at some small publications, but also at national outlets — making little secret of their hostility. Perhaps this was partly down to the extreme politicisation of the topic, most notably by Russell George and Glyn Davies, which led to the famous protest outside the Senedd in 2011. 

    However, onshore wind has now become accepted by most communities and the media in Wales as infrastructure necessary for the benefit of future generations. Again, as a proxy for all renewables, this is extremely important, because without widespread acceptance, we cannot take the steps we know are necessary in order to prevent the very worst impacts of climate change.

    This is not to say that questions around the appropriateness of onshore wind are still not leveled — listen to my recent interview with Radio Cymru (with subtitles) where I field the assertion that wind turbines are ‘ugly’ — but this tends to happen less frequently. 

    Policy

    Policy in Wales has also seen huge changes over that time. Those with long enough memories will recall the discussions around the Silk Commission, and transfers of powers for consenting energy projects to Wales from Westminster. Indeed, our own members were not convinced by the idea, some preferring the idea of UK Ministers making decisions over the ‘lottery’ of local authority or Welsh Minister determination.

    How times change. In the intervening years, in Wales, we have witnessed the adoption of the Environment Act and the Well-being of Future Generations Act and — today — the launch of the low carbon delivery plan. And simultaneously at the UK level, we’ve seen a cooling of support for funding renewables generally, and a huge political and policy surge for that most unpopular of technologies, fracking. As I put it in 2016, Wales and England seem to be very different shades of green.

    Graph showing the change in levels of support for fracking in the UK from December 2013 to December 2018

    Our members would, I suspect, strongly oppose any idea of consenting powers for energy projects making their way back up the M4. I posed the question in 2015 as to whether decisions taken by the UK Government were making nationalists of the business community. Certainly, insofar as the direction of travel of sustainability, their policies may well have had the impact of shoring up support for the institutions of government within the devolved administrations.

    Wot no lagoon?

    Probably the biggest disappointment during my time at RenewableUK was the decision by the UK Government not to provide financial support for the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon project, at the same time as it was bending over backwards to guarantee eye-wateringly lucrative payments for the nuclear sector (and yes, the evidence shows that a policy environment supportive for nuclear is less supportive for renewables)

    An image of the front page of the Hendry Review website

    In 2015 I wrote — before the outcome of the Hendry review was known — that a Wales without lagoons would be poorer, dirtier and sadder. When the review was finally published by UK Government, it described supporting the Swansea project as a ‘no regrets’ option. Indeed. All the more baffling for the sector — particularly bearing in mind the support that the nuclear industry had been promised — when that same support was not extended to this global pathfinder. I described that decision as unjust, and the resentment engendered by it still lingers in Wales — and will continue to do so, I suspect, for many years to come.

    Subsidy for a mainstream sector?

    Few would argue that renewables have entered the mainstream as a major power producer. Indeed, those that would argue do so in face of the facts; in 2018 the output from renewables overtook the combined output from coal and nuclear. 

    Fuel sources for electricity in the UK from 2008 to 2018 (excluding gas)

    It’s a trend which looks certain to continue, with the costs of renewable energy continuing to fall, and with UK Government support for offshore wind guaranteed for the medium term under a Sector Deal. Given this strong support for our offshore colleagues, it’s all the more disappointing to still be waiting for any sign that our nascent marine energy sector will see any kind of revenue support. And equally disappointing that the cheapest forms of electricity generation — onshore wind and solar photovoltaic — continue to be excluded from competitive auctions for subsidy.

    Let us not forget, in the discussion about subsidy, that fossil fuels in the UK receive subsidies of around £15bn per year on average. Offshore wind will receive £557m per year under the sector deal, and large-scale onshore wind and solar will receive zero.

    Given the headstart obtained by the nuclear and fossil fuel sectors, it’s astonishing to me that they should receive any subsidy at all. I would love to see those figures reversed. Let’s invest in our future instead of propping up our past.

    Heat and transport

    If electricity is a job partly undertaken, what of heat and transport?

    It’s no surprise that neither sector have decarbonised significantly since 1990, wedded as we are to the infrastructure that supports the processing and distribution of the fossil fuels which underpin our heat and transport systems. The Committee on Climate Change gave their suggestions for Wales’ emissions targets for 2050, and specifically highlighted planning as an area which could tackle both heat and transport. How disappointing, therefore, to see developments continuing to spring up around Cardiff with little or no obvious mechanism to transport people and goods, except for the private automobile. We seem to be putting an awful lot of faith in the laissez faire approach to market development in clean transport, and insufficient regulation into obliging our developers to make our communities genuinely sustainable.

    That’s not to say that we haven’t made progress — the latest version of Planning Policy Wales is a major step forward. And yet those housing developers who obtained their planning permission many years ago, and have been sitting on their precious land banks; they will be able to build to the same crappy standards they’ve been using for decades, condemning the occupants to a lifetime of high fuel bills. What power does our Future Generations Act have in preventing this? I call for a sunset clause on planning permission in the built environment — or at least a requirement for developers to adopt the latest building standards when they finally get around to developing their sites.

    Final thoughts

    My final comment is to urge you as an individual — and as an organisation — to sign up to your trade body or union. Our sector would undoubtedly be the poorer without RenewableUK’s policy, advocacy, media and networking activity. Even though I will no longer be an employee of RenewableUK, I will be tireless in advocating membership for it. Whatever your sector, there is (probably) a union or a trade body for you. Your membership enables the functioning of that organisation, to the benefit of the sector.

    As an organisation, we are as flawed as any. But what wonderful, talented, inspirational and committed individuals they are that make up RenewableUK, and what an amazing difference this organisation has made to the sector, and to our society. 

    Wales, and the UK, are more prosperous, cleaner, and are stronger global players in the discussion around climate change because of the action of RenewableUK and other trade bodies in the sector — and, of course, because of the member organisations who make up those trade bodies. Colleagues in the energy sector, I salute you and your perseverance. My very best wishes as you continue to make this world a better place.

  • Swansea Tidal Lagoon; an unjust decision

    Swansea Tidal Lagoon; an unjust decision

    “ If we burn our bridges on tidal lagoons, our future will be a little colder and a little darker”.

    I wrote these prescient words in August 2016 as Charles Hendry was carrying out his research into the viability of tidal lagoons in the UK.

    Fast forward two years, and we now know that Wales’ most iconic infrastructure proposal, the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon, will not be receiving UK Government support. The statement, given to Parliament at 5pm on 25 June by Greg Clark, dashed the hopes of hundreds of thousands of supporters from across Wales and beyond, and has plunged the prospects of the project into doubt.

    The announcement seems to have been based on a six-page ‘value for money’ assessment, which has — to put it generously — inconsistencies in its assessment, and is a true wonder of brevity given that it took 81 weeks to produce following the receipt of the Hendry Review.

    The project, almost uniquely in Wales, received all-party support in the National Assembly, and also benefited from strong backbench support in Westminster. On receiving the all-clear from the Hendry Review — which called the Swansea project a ‘no regrets’ option — many thought that the project would receive the go-ahead.

    It was not to be, and the hopes of developing a global manufacturing and supply chain company, operating from southern Wales, with all the employment and skills opportunities that entails, have been lost.

    The already-wealthy regions of London and the south east of England benefit hugely from infrastructure spend via Heathrow and Crossrail. The citizens of West Wales and the Valleys, one of Europe’s poorest regions, could therefore be forgiven for smelling more than a hint of neglect having seen the cancellation of electrification of rail beyond Cardiff, and now the rejection of a tidal lagoon.

    On taking office as Prime Minister, Theresa May talked about the ‘precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland’; and about being driven not by the interests of a privileged few. Many in Wales will wonder about the value of that bond, and the nature of privilege, when they look at wealth being distributed unto wealth in London, but see little evidence of it trickling westwards.

    What could have been

    It’s worth remembering what could have happened had the original timescale of Tidal Lagoon Power been met.

    The proposed timeline of development of the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon

    Having received its Development Consent Order in 2015, the project was more or less on schedule — pending environmental permits from Natural Resources Wales, and the decision on awarding public subsidy from UK Government.

    Had both the other pieces of the jigsaw been delivered that year, the project could conceivably have been generating electricity early in 2019 — just next year — with completion later that year.

    In stating that only 28 long-term jobs would be created as a result of the development, the office of the UK Government in Wales has stretched credulity beyond breaking point.

    Tidal Lagoon Power’s economic analysis — based on modelling carried out independently by the Centre for Economics and Business Research — suggest that the local and national benefit would have been significant.

    During construction, Swansea would have seen the creation of 2,232 direct jobs, and long-term there would have been 181 indirect and induced jobs. Swansea would have seen the impact of an estimated 100,000 visitors per year. With local hotel capacity overwhelmed, major tourism developments would have been likely — as well as the prospect of local AirBnB hosts benefiting from short stays.

    The opportunities for further development would have been impressive, with a prize of up to seven new manufacturing facilities in Wales helping contribute to 23,000 FTE jobs in Wales on completion of four project in Welsh waters. With a potential global market, the potential for job creation could have reached still further.

    Response

    There has been an anguished response to the decision from many quarters.

    Chair of the National Assembly’s Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee, Mike Hedges AM, called it a ‘huge missed opportunity’, and ‘deeply disappointing and extremely concerning’. Stephen Kinnock, MP for Aberavon, called the announcement ‘devastating’.

    Simon Thomas, Plaid Cymru’s environment spokesperson, said that Greg Clark was ‘not just pulling the plug on this one project but on the whole potential of tidal range energy in Wales and the UK’.

    The Welsh Conservatives called the decision ‘depressing’. And Grenville Ham, leader of the Green Party in Wales, summarised it with “Wales wants a dam, UK Govt doesn’t give a damn”.

    From the business community, FSB Wales said they were ‘bitterly disappointed’, South Wales Chambers of Commerce called the decision ‘short-sighted’ and a ‘bitter pill’.

    We have yet to hear from Tidal Lagoon Power itself, so we can only speculate as to whether the company will proceed with the Swansea — or any other — tidal project.

    Conclusion

    The UK Government said that the project did not meet the three tests of having dependable electricity, provided by low-cost and low-carbon sources.

    In making this decision, the UK Government seems to have used double-standards on comparing the lagoon with nuclear. For example, in only considering capital costs, the decommissioning cost of nuclear has been conveniently air-brushed from the equation. That’s 100 years of employment plus capital expenditure quietly deleted. In comparing output in TWh, and then bringing up Capacity Factor, they have conflated two issues which don’t belong together.

    The comparison with offshore wind, a mature market which benefited from generous subsidy to become established, is also unfair. The proposition with the lagoon is not solely based on electricity cost, but the potential to generate a whole new industrial sector.

    And on cost, how on earth did the UK Government come to the conclusion that the cost to Welsh householders would be £15,000, when the Hendry Review said that the cost would be a pint of milk to every household in the UK per year?

    It’s as if there are two lagoons in Swansea.

    The first, promoted by the company and recognised by every Welsh political party and the independent Government-commissioned Hendry review, produces affordable electricity for a hundred years, kick-starts a local economy, and supports a manufacturing and supply chain to employ thousands.

    The other, recognised only by the UK Government, employs 28 people and bankrupts householders with unsustainable electricity bills.

    Whilst the truth is surely somewhere between the two, most reasonable people will recognise where the balance lies.

    This article was first published by the Institute of Welsh Affairs and does not reflect the views of my employer.

  • The Clubb Doctrine: presumed consent for community energy

    I’ve been working in the renewable energy sector since 2004. Of the thousands of people I’ve met during that time, I’ve never encountered anyone who opposed community energy.

    Even the anti-wind die-hards don’t generally object to community energy — as long as it’s not wind, natch.

    You’d think that with widespread public, civic and political support for community energy it would be ubiquitous. But it’s not. Not even close.

    Less than 10 MW of Wales’ 2,300 MW of renewable electricity is community-owned. That’s a miniscule 0.4%.

    Community energy in Wales has struggled to make much headway

    The problem

    The problems facing community energy project developers are legion. Not only do they encounter the same issues as commercial developers, such as negotiating planning, consenting, grid and financing issues; they have to do so with considerably less professional support .

    Those projects which have seen success are characterised by years of hard work from pioneering individuals who have doggedly pursued projects at no personal gain and against overwhelming odds. Take a bow everyone involved with Community Energy Wales.

    Community Energy Wales; struggling valiantly against the odds

    Sadly there are literally hundreds of projects which never made it to the grid. Many of these were perfectly viable, had huge local support, and could be generating low-carbon electricity right now, returning revenue to the local community and nourishing entrepreneurship, skills and employment.

    Rejection of a community energy project has sometimes been for fairly unenlightened reasons, such as the perception of visual impact by some of the local councillors who form the membership of planning committees.

    Appealing these decisions is often too much to bear for the meagre resources of a community project, and the idea, and all the good things embodied by it, can fall.

    The barriers, predominantly in the planning system, which for the most part serve to protect and enhance our built environment, are crippling the ability of our communities to benefit from the energy generated from our natural resources.

    The current policy levers have manifestly failed to add sufficient weight in the planning system to enable community energy projects to flourish. We need a new solution.

    The solution?

    Here’s my suggestion. Let’s reverse the normal way of doing things. Instead of considering genuinely community-owned projects as unwelcome intrusions into the landscape, let’s help them through the process. The time has come to put issues of project ownership into the planning system.

    Projects such as community energy installations — and indeed commercial/community partnership projects — potentially have such intrinsic value to society that we should challenge the planning system to say why they should not take place.

    Of course having a different planning process for community energy alone would be a needless bureaucratic burden if the existing system were able to provide the same outcomes. So I’m not proposing a separate system.

    Instead we should give material consideration to the ownership of renewable energy projects, such that considerable additional weight is given to a wholly community-owned energy project, or one which delivers significant local benefits through joint ownership models.

    We need to support community energy — and also commercial projects of all scales

    I’m most definitely not saying that we should make things any more difficult for commercial developers. The terrible imperative forced on us by the impacts of climate change mean that we should be pursuing every reasonable measure to mitigate future greenhouse gas emissions — which means being resolute in our determination to proceed apace with renewable energy deployment at all scales, including the very largest projects offshore and onshore.

    But community energy’s lack of success suggests that it needs a little extra if it’s to deliver anything substantial over the next few decades.

    Test it

    There are big conceptual challenges with a change to the system of this nature. So one possible approach is to take a discrete geographic area and pilot the approach.

    This area could be a local planning authority boundary, an enterprise zone, a city region or other target geography.

    Swansea Bay City Region. A potential target for community energy innovation? (Photo)

    Examples that spring to mind are the Swansea Bay City Region, the three energy enterprise zones (Ynys Môn, Haven Waterway and Eryri), the south Wales valleys (covered by the Ministerial Taskforce), the Dyfi Biosphere or Pen Llŷn.

    What would it mean?

    Presumed consent would immediately accelerate the deployment of community energy in Wales. The barriers would lower on a number of fronts:

    1. Reduced planning risk would incentivise more communities to consider developments in their area
    2. A greater material weight in planning would increase the number of successful projects, and lower the cost of all projects due to lowered cost of finance
    3. Any area which was identified as having better planning opportunities for community energy would attract significant interest, investment and expertise from within and outside those areas, increasing the number of project applications

    I believe that nascent models of commercial-community partnership should also be encouraged under this system. We could generate a very lively debate about the level at which ownership triggers the ‘material weight’ condition — although the detail of these important sub-aspects of the Doctrine would necessarily have to be explored in much greater depth once the principle was accepted.

    Potential issues

    The impact of a proliferation of community or joint-venture projects would need to be carefully and strategically managed.

    Local residents would need to be involved at all stages of the development of such a pilot, and the route to an easier ride through planning should require a quid pro quo of a binding commitment to local procurement.

    Strong links with the regional further education providers would demonstrate the career pathway for young people, further enhancing the positive reputation of the sector.

    However the potential downsides would — I believe — be strongly offset by the multiple advantages of having a thriving community energy sector.

    The philosophical barrier to progress

    When I’ve previously suggested presumed consent for community energy projects to people in the planning profession — I have form on radicalism — it has been met with something akin to disbelief.

    One of the fundamental tenets of planning is that projects should be judged entirely on their merit. Ownership of a project clearly has no bearing on planning issues such as visual impact.

    This means that — in suggesting that ownership of a project should have weight in planning — I am explicitly stating that one of these fundamentals of the planning system should be rejected.

    I don’t shy away from this.

    The exercise of planning policy in the community energy sector thus far has served the exact opposite. It has fed the process, and nearly obliterated the outcome.

    The planning system is not a divine precept. It is human-created, and should exist to serve the people.

    How do we make it happen?

    A pilot community energy zone will not happen of its own. We need to provide informed opinion which can challenge the philosophical objection to ownership having a material weight on a project. We also need evidence on how and why the current system is failing the sector

    I suggest that Community Energy Wales works with as many organisations as possible to build the case. This will almost certainly require the opinion of academic planners, practicing planners or legal experts, possibly supported by a crowdfund.

    With a well-crafted opinion, the sector will be in a place to make a strong case for a pilot zone.

    No doubt there will be plenty of devil in the detail; but the potential prize for the people and communities of Wales is unquestionable.